Wipe Out

I put the Excel sheet in fire which is misleading because that usually means you’re hot. This is more being shown as going up in flames.

After rattling off 9 straight losses and 39.6 units, I have ended the run of 9 weeks and $200 dollars. I’m not entirely sure how it says I lost 27, so there may be a mistake there somewhere. I had a few Blackjack hits in that account that also may not be taken into consideration which is another explanation for the imbalance.

Not too much to say really other than my major public fade on the Giants was completely wrong. Rather than trying to figure out that game, I took a macro perspective of the public always loses and that was wrong in this instance. Egg on me. I was also completely off on the 49ers at home as Drew Stanton was asked to do little with A Pete running the ball 37 times. Egg on me. In desperation, the Raider game was to keep me afloat and the 2 point conversion at the end of the game sank the ship. I’ll probably take a little break and then reload on Sunday. I’ll tally up the total later but college football killed me this year.

I had minor success in DK as I cashed in 4 out of 4 money lineups. I placed in the $100 Spy, $50 Red Zone, and Sunday Mill. I also narrowly edged out a 3 person $50 league to win about 200 on the day and get me back what I lost last week. The account is still at a K, so more lineups will ensue as the season winds down. I made 2 really bad calls with Russell Sheppard and Chris Thompson which prevented a bigger week. You can’t have a guy go for 1.1 and except to have success and I went too far out on a limb. I’m still learning where that limb is too far. Nailing the defense is also key and I’ve been pretty bad.

From a fantasy perspective, and I’m sure people care about this the least, ss long as Theo Riddick goes for under 15, I’ll have a 2-2 week and put 2 teams at 5-4, 1 at 4-5, and 1 at 3-6. Fine striking points for the playoffs.

By | 2017-11-06T10:37:42+00:00 November 6th, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

Bad JuJu

When you’re on the roller coaster of life, you expect the ups and downs. This was a down week.

I’ll start with what wasn’t horrible and my continuing effort to make $200 last 16 weeks. I brought myself almost back to even in my sports betting. CFB is absolutely killing me week after week. Adam, now the 5 and 0 man betting baseball, should get some credit for keeping me alive with these World Series bets. I didn’t listen to him on game 1 if you were wondering. I want to add that I watched a Periscope with Warren Sharp and Evan Silva last night and they were where I got the Seahawks and Chargers picks. It was neat to hear his analysis and how good the Pats are at “mortar kicks” and how bad the Chargers were on 3rd down and their mystery use of Hunter Henry. Up to 76 bets though, so I’m hanging with the juice.

My season long fantasy week was saved by a Harrison Butker barrage last night to eek 1 game out by .1. I still went 1-3 though and am still shaking my head over Rock’s comeback. Note to fantasy players, it doesn’t matter if the projection %’s say 99% – 1%, you can still lose. How? When Yahoo! has a projection at 5, and the guy goes for 30, that % means jack shit. If you couldn’t guess, that player was JuJu Smith-Schuster. It also didn’t help when Nuk exploded in the 2nd half and Jimmy Graham scored 2 second half TD’s to basically turn my 99% to a loser in a matter of hours. 2 leagues I sit at 3-5, 1 at 4-4, and the other at 5-3. Looking to make the playoff push.

After my DFS success, I followed it up with no movement last week and -$230 this week. I upped my buy ins and reduced the tournaments in a go big or go home push. I went home. Total whiff on the Texans and I wasn’t on LeSean.

By | 2017-10-31T11:57:09+00:00 October 31st, 2017|Fantasy|4 Comments

The Gambling Mentality

I had someone text this to me yesterday:

If you watched the game last night, you’d know the home team mopped up. Today I feel like a genius. Why?

I had no inkling at all on this game and said I like the home team. I didn’t consider the injuries, the players, any trends, or what type of game was going to be played and I won. It wasn’t well thought out. Yet some reason I feel smart.

I’m fairly certain this is why people gamble and the best reason I can describe for why I do it. I don’t gamble to make money. The money is nice but whether I win or lose, I’m not in it to retire. I’m also not in it to lose money I work hard to earn. I gamble within my means and it’s more of a leisure activity instead of a money maker. That being said, I love being right. The satisfaction and reward for nailing a game is earning more money to bet again. I’m currently on week 8 with the same $200 I started the NFL season with and I’m approaching 70 bets with that money. Sure I’ve been all in 4 times and this run could have ended, but as is, LET’S FUCKING GO. That was a capitalized LFG for the Seahawks and Chargers this week. Sorry Rob.

By | 2017-10-27T14:39:48+00:00 October 27th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

Gambling Is Fun!

Tuesday’s are good review days after all the action ends. I’ve been AI 3 times since last Wednesday which generally isn’t a good way to gamble but my head is still above water in the Bovada account. I’m down about 80 bucks for the season but for making 63 bets, I’ll take it. It’s funny how the trends go with winning 4 in a row and then losing 4 in a row.

Coming off my nice win in DK I entered 6 lineups and thankfully won 1 $50 5 man, winner take all, for a $3 dollar profit. It was the last lineup I threw together saying to myself that I had to have some exposure to Zeke and Dak. Onto next week.

My fantasy teams went 2-2 and I’m in the hunt in all 4 leagues. I’m 4-3 in 2 and 3-4 in the others. My teams have varying degrees of issues but I’m pretty sure everyone does at this point. Not playing Derek Carr against Adam cost me the W.

By | 2017-10-24T11:34:09+00:00 October 24th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

Where The Win Puts Me At

Winning 3k sounds tremendous, but it’s not all fun and games. This win is essentially making up for all the gambling work that I’ve done over the past year to put me in the “green” for a set amount of time. PLUS, the money is taxable money which people who consistently lose don’t have to worry about.

DraftKings
Deposited: $1205 since 1/1/2017
Withdraw: $0.00
Net: -$1,205

Bovada
Deposited $1,300 including fees since 1/1/2017
Withdraw: $300, still $100 in the account
Net: $-900

Sugarhouse

 

So without looking into Casino wins and losses you can see that the $2,250 (net) will put me ahead a few hundred dollars over the course of the year for my gambling addiction fun. I actually think I can deduct the $810 from the 3k and only tax the 2,200 as income, but I’d need someone to explain that to me. Either way, I’m going to move 2k out of the DraftKings account and leave 1k for a new roll moving forward. This new roll is well earned for all the time I’ve spent and hopefully will give me some more flexibility in a week to week investment. Many people would look at that like, “hey, you won 3k, you’re rich”. Not exactly. It’s more like I’m getting some of my own money back that I conveniently loaned to Bovada and other members of Draftkings. You’re welcome! Cue up the insta Rob Kelley like.

By | 2017-10-16T10:35:54+00:00 October 16th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

When A Plan Comes Together

After getting my clocked clean last week in Draftkings, losing 100% of my investment on 9 lineups, I took a more limited approach in week 6. I created 5 DraftKings lineups ranging from $8 to-$50, mostly in GPP’s. I added a $50 dollar line up as more of a hail mary type investment, as I’ve been losing all season and it seemed like a good time to gamble. I was recovering from a Friday late night and didn’t do much on Saturday except read about football. Total loser. However, this time investment led to a good story.

I met Adam, Evan, and Steve at Miller’s on Delaware Ave for the 1pm games. The setup was good for football and the pricing was much more affordable than Fox and Hound. Adam and I got there first and I showed him my Draftkings line up. He said, “I don’t want to give you advice” (or something to that effect) and I said I want to hear it. He said that he’s been to Phoenix Stadium twice and it’s a difficult place to play in for an away team. I had a Jameis to DeSean stack in the $50 lineup. He went to he bathroom and I had a decision to make. I took Adam’s advice and moved to Kirk Cousins and Amari Cooper in place of the TB stack.

Evan and I know that you have to get started early to do some damage and my team was ready. Cousins to Chris Thompson was a cheap 51.8 pts that only ~2% of the league had combined (each was 10% owned so I’d guess the stack was much less). Mark Ingram was 31.9% owned and rightfully so. AB was a guy who I paid up for and came through in spades. John Brown was my cheap WR who did his job and Amari Cooper was my worst pick. I tell Evan that we have to think about paying up for Gronk every week and he was a dynamite 4x. Mickinnon (34.2% owned) was what was expected from his talent. The Texans D was an obvious pick against the Browns.

The team won by 15.4 points and I added 3k to my roll. This lineup would have been 34th in the Sunday Mill and I would have cashed for $1,500. Lucky timing and the advice from Adam proved differential. I sculpted the lineup and he added the finishing touches. I tried to give him money and he didn’t take it. I already decided on an amount I would give him but I’m asking the audience. What does Adam deserve?

What Should Adam Get?

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I did use Fantasy Labs and PFF to help me create this lineup. Feels right to give some positive advertising after writing this piece.

By | 2017-10-15T20:29:42+00:00 October 15th, 2017|Fantasy|3 Comments

Strike While It’s Hot

I haven’t checked in to the blog in a few days so I’ll revert to some old, boring, post material. All has been well but I’ve been busy with other projects and this website has been taking a back seat. I hate when other people say “they are so busy” because you can be busy doing laundry. Everyone can be busy.

Last week I devoted nearly 0 time to football and had a fine run. This week I’ve been spending too much time looking at it and will probably crap out but you never now I’ve been running hot so take that for what it’s worth. I’ve taken Northwestern +14 and Georgia -18 for my noon action. I’m not good with NCAAF as a fair warning.

Picks

Jags @ Steelers – 10 Units on Jags +8 – You should know that I rarely make decisions by myself. I pool as much info as I can find and if it sticks out to me as trustworthy, then I’ll gauge how much action I want to have exposed to it. Evan Silva wrote “And I believe Jacksonville’s defense is good enough to keep this game closer than the spread suggests” With Ramsey and Bouye back there, I agree. Yes, I think Le’Veon is going to run all over this team. Yes, I think that the Jags offense sucks. Because I think this strongly about those last two points, it points me towards knowing I don’t know anything and taking the Jags. FWIW, Adam does not like this pick.

Cardinals @ Eagles – 10 Units on Cardinals +6.5 – I’m from Philly so you’d think it’s criminal to bet against the home team. When I see a money opportunity, I don’t let allegiance get in the way. I don’t believe this should make me a bad person. The bottom line here is that the Eagles are not a team that capitalizes on mistakes and blows teams out of the water. They beat the Redskins by 13, lost to the Chiefs by 7, needed a 61 yarder to win by 3, and narrowly beat the 0-4 Chargers by 2 in a home “away” game. Jalen Mills has a 44.1 grade in PFF and ranks 86 out of 100+.  Rasul Douglas has a 54.6 grade ranking 68. Rodney McLeod has a 37.1 grade at safety. Carson Palmer isn’t as bad as people say and all he’s going to do is throw. Who is going to stop these targets? No one. I’m not rooting for the Eagles to lose but they aren’t covering 6.5 points. PS. I think Jaron Brown has a big day.

 

DraftKings

By | 2017-10-07T10:46:17+00:00 October 7th, 2017|Fantasy|2 Comments

Keep Me Out Of The Sheep Laboratory

Today at 8:10 am I got a from the CEO of Fantasy Labs, Jonathan Bales, about Fantasy Labs being acquired by the Chernin Group.

We are very excited to announce that FantasyLabs has been acquired by The Chernin Group. As part of the deal, The Chernin Group has also purchased sportsbetting analytics companies Sports Insights and SportsAction, as well as hired legend Chad Millman (formerly of ESPN) as Head of Content.

This disappointed me. Why you ask? What has happened with Barstool will take place with Fantasy Labs. If what happens with Barstool happens with labs, dilution will occur. There may be more material, but it won’t be the same because as more people start getting involved, the original team’s ideas start to dissipate and the loyalty that got them there, will spread.

The Chernin Group acquired Barstool and has helped promote them to a more mainstream audience. Prior to Chernin with Barstool, I liked the personal touch of the bloggers from each individual city. It was cool to think that you were a part of your city. I used to feel like I could relate to Smitty. Now he’s just another blogger part of a mainstream sports site with millions of people paying attention to whatever “content” they feel is worth creating. I’m not interested in the weak content that their under qualified staff has to offer on pretty much every topic. I like their Instagram page with people getting hurt and doing dumb stunts, but I won’t click on any Barstool posts on the site unless I’m bored. I’m worried this will occur with Labs.

You pay for these models.

I’ve been a Labs subscriber for about 3 months and feel like I’m a part of the in crowd of DFS. I pay $60 a month for information that the sheep aren’t aware of. Now that the Chernin Group is a part of Labs, more people will subscribe. Chernin isn’t a dumb group. They will blow up a brand using whatever formula that their smart people come up with. This will introduce Labs to millions of meatheads who will pay $60 for the same info I have access to. Does this make me selfish? Of course it does. But that doesn’t mean that what I’m feeling isn’t universal with the current Labs subscriber base.

Evan Silva – Being mainstream and not selling out.

Smart people will go elsewhere. This is the one part of this acquisition that may be overlooked, or perhaps is thought about and weighed as not crucial. Smart people know that they can’t be part of the crowd. Being part of what the crowd does is a sure fire way to forever exist in the crowd. Most people don’t realize they are part of the crowd. It’s not like someone says, “it’s time to go elsewhere.” However, when I see this type of acquisition take place, I know that what may have been on the on-skirts of “the crowd”, has now become “the crowd”. For that I’m disappointed, but can’t fault anyone because selling out is a part of life that is hard to avoid because it’s what you work to get to.

I haven’t made any money using Fantasy Labs. Their models are helpful but they won’t guarantee you success. There is a lot that goes behind making lineups and the main one is having the bankroll to see it through. I’m a rec player and don’t even care about the money won or loss. However, depending on how this acquisition starts to feel, there’s a good chance I’ll take my money elsewhere and see what other “insiders” have to offer. I’m sure I’m part of a minority, but that’s where you want to play from.

By | 2017-10-03T13:34:00+00:00 October 3rd, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

A Profitable Weekend

Aside from going 5-10 in a Pick Em’, not against the spread, I had a pretty good weekend. I played some 1-2 at Sugarhouse on Friday and ended up winning about $500. I was in for $700, so walking out with $1,200 felt pretty good. The next night I broke even in Pai Gow, lost $150 in Blackjack, and then bought into 1-2 again. In similar fashion, I was in for about $500 and walked out about with $1,000. For the amount of money I tip to servers and dealers, I should probably have another $200 in my wallet. Either way it was profitable. Without elaborating much on the session, people look at me as a drunk, loose cannon who is capable of showing up with any 2. This tends to throw them off their games whereas this literally is my game. I get killed in games where people are coming over the top of my loose opens and it causes me to tighten up and essentially be a losing player. In these smaller games, people just let me rule the roost and I win the most pots and show down well when I get my money in.

I also managed to post a win in Draftkings for the first time this year. Sure it was only $30 but at least it was a winning week. I will be going 3-1 in fantasy and a shot at 4-0 if Witten drops less than 4. Combine that with a 3-0 NFL week for 20 units to make up for some goon texting me Eastern Micigan on Saturday and the account is juicing. Going to make a play tonight for at least 10 units and I’m leaning towards the Cards if anyone cares.

I’ll be heading away for a large part of this week so there’s a chance this is the last post until next Monday. We’ll see.

By | 2017-09-25T13:30:12+00:00 September 25th, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

A Reprieve From the Gambling Gods

There is no better feeling than thinking you’re busto and then looking in your gambling account to see money. What happened? Did Bovada make a mistake? Why are the gambling gods allowing me to continue? This new found money feels like funny money. If you have never bet, you wouldn’t know that the worst feeling in gambling is depositing. First of all your account says 0 which is bad. Plus, every time you deposit you get hit with fees that you know is wasted money. Then there is this other feeling that you know you are going to lose the money. I have 0 expectation when I make a deposit that I’m going to cash out. I gamble not to win money, but for entertainment. If I can make $100 last a month, I’m happy. I get all of the entertainment and the chance of running up a roll.

Here is my gambling log for the football season:

It says I’m down 3.76 units from 10, but I still have 7.5 units in my account so I may have missed a bet or two. Either way, this post is created because I forgot I put a bet on the Lions on Friday night for Monday. I have no clue why I would do that but when I checked this morning, I had 7.5 units of gambling dollars. Each unit is 10 bucks but we like to sound like we know what we are talking about talking in units (we is Adam and I can’t think of 1 other person I talk about betting games with). A unit is $10. I must have been reading Evan Silva’s blog and it clicked in my brain to bet on the Lions. It’s so weird because I rarely ever put a bet in days before. What if I wanted to use that money for another game on Friday night or Saturday? It honestly feels like a mistake. 100% Rob Kelley will favorite this post on Twitter.

By | 2017-09-22T10:57:53+00:00 September 22nd, 2017|Fantasy, Sports|2 Comments

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