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Where The Win Puts Me At

Winning 3k sounds tremendous, but it’s not all fun and games. This win is essentially making up for all the gambling work that I’ve done over the past year to put me in the “green” for a set amount of time. PLUS, the money is taxable money which people who consistently lose don’t have to worry about.

DraftKings
Deposited: $1205 since 1/1/2017
Withdraw: $0.00
Net: -$1,205

Bovada
Deposited $1,300 including fees since 1/1/2017
Withdraw: $300, still $100 in the account
Net: $-900

Sugarhouse

 

So without looking into Casino wins and losses you can see that the $2,250 (net) will put me ahead a few hundred dollars over the course of the year for my gambling addiction fun. I actually think I can deduct the $810 from the 3k and only tax the 2,200 as income, but I’d need someone to explain that to me. Either way, I’m going to move 2k out of the DraftKings account and leave 1k for a new roll moving forward. This new roll is well earned for all the time I’ve spent and hopefully will give me some more flexibility in a week to week investment. Many people would look at that like, “hey, you won 3k, you’re rich”. Not exactly. It’s more like I’m getting some of my own money back that I conveniently loaned to Bovada and other members of Draftkings. You’re welcome! Cue up the insta Rob Kelley like.

By | 2017-10-16T10:35:54+00:00 October 16th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

When A Plan Comes Together

After getting my clocked clean last week in Draftkings, losing 100% of my investment on 9 lineups, I took a more limited approach in week 6. I created 5 DraftKings lineups ranging from $8 to-$50, mostly in GPP’s. I added a $50 dollar line up as more of a hail mary type investment, as I’ve been losing all season and it seemed like a good time to gamble. I was recovering from a Friday late night and didn’t do much on Saturday except read about football. Total loser. However, this time investment led to a good story.

I met Adam, Evan, and Steve at Miller’s on Delaware Ave for the 1pm games. The setup was good for football and the pricing was much more affordable than Fox and Hound. Adam and I got there first and I showed him my Draftkings line up. He said, “I don’t want to give you advice” (or something to that effect) and I said I want to hear it. He said that he’s been to Phoenix Stadium twice and it’s a difficult place to play in for an away team. I had a Jameis to DeSean stack in the $50 lineup. He went to he bathroom and I had a decision to make. I took Adam’s advice and moved to Kirk Cousins and Amari Cooper in place of the TB stack.

Evan and I know that you have to get started early to do some damage and my team was ready. Cousins to Chris Thompson was a cheap 51.8 pts that only ~2% of the league had combined (each was 10% owned so I’d guess the stack was much less). Mark Ingram was 31.9% owned and rightfully so. AB was a guy who I paid up for and came through in spades. John Brown was my cheap WR who did his job and Amari Cooper was my worst pick. I tell Evan that we have to think about paying up for Gronk every week and he was a dynamite 4x. Mickinnon (34.2% owned) was what was expected from his talent. The Texans D was an obvious pick against the Browns.

The team won by 15.4 points and I added 3k to my roll. This lineup would have been 34th in the Sunday Mill and I would have cashed for $1,500. Lucky timing and the advice from Adam proved differential. I sculpted the lineup and he added the finishing touches. I tried to give him money and he didn’t take it. I already decided on an amount I would give him but I’m asking the audience. What does Adam deserve?

What Should Adam Get?

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I did use Fantasy Labs and PFF to help me create this lineup. Feels right to give some positive advertising after writing this piece.

By | 2017-10-15T20:29:42+00:00 October 15th, 2017|Fantasy|3 Comments

Strike While It’s Hot

I haven’t checked in to the blog in a few days so I’ll revert to some old, boring, post material. All has been well but I’ve been busy with other projects and this website has been taking a back seat. I hate when other people say “they are so busy” because you can be busy doing laundry. Everyone can be busy.

Last week I devoted nearly 0 time to football and had a fine run. This week I’ve been spending too much time looking at it and will probably crap out but you never now I’ve been running hot so take that for what it’s worth. I’ve taken Northwestern +14 and Georgia -18 for my noon action. I’m not good with NCAAF as a fair warning.

Picks

Jags @ Steelers – 10 Units on Jags +8 – You should know that I rarely make decisions by myself. I pool as much info as I can find and if it sticks out to me as trustworthy, then I’ll gauge how much action I want to have exposed to it. Evan Silva wrote “And I believe Jacksonville’s defense is good enough to keep this game closer than the spread suggests” With Ramsey and Bouye back there, I agree. Yes, I think Le’Veon is going to run all over this team. Yes, I think that the Jags offense sucks. Because I think this strongly about those last two points, it points me towards knowing I don’t know anything and taking the Jags. FWIW, Adam does not like this pick.

Cardinals @ Eagles – 10 Units on Cardinals +6.5 – I’m from Philly so you’d think it’s criminal to bet against the home team. When I see a money opportunity, I don’t let allegiance get in the way. I don’t believe this should make me a bad person. The bottom line here is that the Eagles are not a team that capitalizes on mistakes and blows teams out of the water. They beat the Redskins by 13, lost to the Chiefs by 7, needed a 61 yarder to win by 3, and narrowly beat the 0-4 Chargers by 2 in a home “away” game. Jalen Mills has a 44.1 grade in PFF and ranks 86 out of 100+.  Rasul Douglas has a 54.6 grade ranking 68. Rodney McLeod has a 37.1 grade at safety. Carson Palmer isn’t as bad as people say and all he’s going to do is throw. Who is going to stop these targets? No one. I’m not rooting for the Eagles to lose but they aren’t covering 6.5 points. PS. I think Jaron Brown has a big day.

 

DraftKings

By | 2017-10-07T10:46:17+00:00 October 7th, 2017|Fantasy|2 Comments

Keep Me Out Of The Sheep Laboratory

Today at 8:10 am I got a from the CEO of Fantasy Labs, Jonathan Bales, about Fantasy Labs being acquired by the Chernin Group.

We are very excited to announce that FantasyLabs has been acquired by The Chernin Group. As part of the deal, The Chernin Group has also purchased sportsbetting analytics companies Sports Insights and SportsAction, as well as hired legend Chad Millman (formerly of ESPN) as Head of Content.

This disappointed me. Why you ask? What has happened with Barstool will take place with Fantasy Labs. If what happens with Barstool happens with labs, dilution will occur. There may be more material, but it won’t be the same because as more people start getting involved, the original team’s ideas start to dissipate and the loyalty that got them there, will spread.

The Chernin Group acquired Barstool and has helped promote them to a more mainstream audience. Prior to Chernin with Barstool, I liked the personal touch of the bloggers from each individual city. It was cool to think that you were a part of your city. I used to feel like I could relate to Smitty. Now he’s just another blogger part of a mainstream sports site with millions of people paying attention to whatever “content” they feel is worth creating. I’m not interested in the weak content that their under qualified staff has to offer on pretty much every topic. I like their Instagram page with people getting hurt and doing dumb stunts, but I won’t click on any Barstool posts on the site unless I’m bored. I’m worried this will occur with Labs.

You pay for these models.

I’ve been a Labs subscriber for about 3 months and feel like I’m a part of the in crowd of DFS. I pay $60 a month for information that the sheep aren’t aware of. Now that the Chernin Group is a part of Labs, more people will subscribe. Chernin isn’t a dumb group. They will blow up a brand using whatever formula that their smart people come up with. This will introduce Labs to millions of meatheads who will pay $60 for the same info I have access to. Does this make me selfish? Of course it does. But that doesn’t mean that what I’m feeling isn’t universal with the current Labs subscriber base.

Evan Silva – Being mainstream and not selling out.

Smart people will go elsewhere. This is the one part of this acquisition that may be overlooked, or perhaps is thought about and weighed as not crucial. Smart people know that they can’t be part of the crowd. Being part of what the crowd does is a sure fire way to forever exist in the crowd. Most people don’t realize they are part of the crowd. It’s not like someone says, “it’s time to go elsewhere.” However, when I see this type of acquisition take place, I know that what may have been on the on-skirts of “the crowd”, has now become “the crowd”. For that I’m disappointed, but can’t fault anyone because selling out is a part of life that is hard to avoid because it’s what you work to get to.

I haven’t made any money using Fantasy Labs. Their models are helpful but they won’t guarantee you success. There is a lot that goes behind making lineups and the main one is having the bankroll to see it through. I’m a rec player and don’t even care about the money won or loss. However, depending on how this acquisition starts to feel, there’s a good chance I’ll take my money elsewhere and see what other “insiders” have to offer. I’m sure I’m part of a minority, but that’s where you want to play from.

By | 2017-10-03T13:34:00+00:00 October 3rd, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

A Profitable Weekend

Aside from going 5-10 in a Pick Em’, not against the spread, I had a pretty good weekend. I played some 1-2 at Sugarhouse on Friday and ended up winning about $500. I was in for $700, so walking out with $1,200 felt pretty good. The next night I broke even in Pai Gow, lost $150 in Blackjack, and then bought into 1-2 again. In similar fashion, I was in for about $500 and walked out about with $1,000. For the amount of money I tip to servers and dealers, I should probably have another $200 in my wallet. Either way it was profitable. Without elaborating much on the session, people look at me as a drunk, loose cannon who is capable of showing up with any 2. This tends to throw them off their games whereas this literally is my game. I get killed in games where people are coming over the top of my loose opens and it causes me to tighten up and essentially be a losing player. In these smaller games, people just let me rule the roost and I win the most pots and show down well when I get my money in.

I also managed to post a win in Draftkings for the first time this year. Sure it was only $30 but at least it was a winning week. I will be going 3-1 in fantasy and a shot at 4-0 if Witten drops less than 4. Combine that with a 3-0 NFL week for 20 units to make up for some goon texting me Eastern Micigan on Saturday and the account is juicing. Going to make a play tonight for at least 10 units and I’m leaning towards the Cards if anyone cares.

I’ll be heading away for a large part of this week so there’s a chance this is the last post until next Monday. We’ll see.

By | 2017-09-25T13:30:12+00:00 September 25th, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

A Reprieve From the Gambling Gods

There is no better feeling than thinking you’re busto and then looking in your gambling account to see money. What happened? Did Bovada make a mistake? Why are the gambling gods allowing me to continue? This new found money feels like funny money. If you have never bet, you wouldn’t know that the worst feeling in gambling is depositing. First of all your account says 0 which is bad. Plus, every time you deposit you get hit with fees that you know is wasted money. Then there is this other feeling that you know you are going to lose the money. I have 0 expectation when I make a deposit that I’m going to cash out. I gamble not to win money, but for entertainment. If I can make $100 last a month, I’m happy. I get all of the entertainment and the chance of running up a roll.

Here is my gambling log for the football season:

It says I’m down 3.76 units from 10, but I still have 7.5 units in my account so I may have missed a bet or two. Either way, this post is created because I forgot I put a bet on the Lions on Friday night for Monday. I have no clue why I would do that but when I checked this morning, I had 7.5 units of gambling dollars. Each unit is 10 bucks but we like to sound like we know what we are talking about talking in units (we is Adam and I can’t think of 1 other person I talk about betting games with). A unit is $10. I must have been reading Evan Silva’s blog and it clicked in my brain to bet on the Lions. It’s so weird because I rarely ever put a bet in days before. What if I wanted to use that money for another game on Friday night or Saturday? It honestly feels like a mistake. 100% Rob Kelley will favorite this post on Twitter.

By | 2017-09-22T10:57:53+00:00 September 22nd, 2017|Fantasy, Sports|2 Comments

FAAB Action

Without a doubt, utilizing your free auction dollars in fantasy football can be an edge. I’ll add too that if the league is still using rolling waivers, it’s an inferior way of justice towards who gets the player. Let’s look at a few bids by people in my leagues this week and i’ll throw around my opinion because I can.

Evan’s League

  • Chris Thompson was won by a bid of $15, while Sam and I bid $5. This back field is unclear with Rob Kelley being bad and Thompson producing. $15 seems like a reasonable price to pay for a position that seems exceptionally hard to fill these days.
  • I bid $8 on JJ Nelson and Evan bid $4. This is where Evan’s bid of $56 for Tarik Cohen leaves him out of the running. If John Brown continues to ail, and there’s no reason to think otherwise, I like JJ’s potential. I also have no idea how no one else in the league thought of putting in a bid for a guy who just went for 120 and 2. If I really thought a defense had a PREMIUM matchup, I may bid $6. However, there is no reason to think that Eli can’t burn the Eagles.

  • Alex bid $6 for the Eagles D and Evan bid $2. Streaming defenses is a good strategy, but spending this much on the Eagles doesn’t make much sense.
  • Jason Witten for $14 and…. there was 1 bid for 0. Overpaid for a TE where you can find a streamer option every week.

Alex’s League

  • A player not only dropped Chris Hogan, but they won a bid for JJ Nelson for $25. Sheesh on all fronts.
  • This same player spend $25 for Jermaine Kearse and the next bid was $5. Sheesh.
  • Jason Witten went for $22. Ed Dickson will replace Olsen and could have been gotten as an FA. Witten will regress.
  • The Eagles and the Falcons D’s were picked up for $14 and $10 respectively. I don’t get it but the same player who bid $6 in the other league, bid $14 here. Confusing.
  • Marlon Mack was also released, who after spending the day with Bud (who has way more knowledge on upcoming player than any normal human should), will be bid on by me.

Steve’s League

  • This is an old waiver system but I was in the 3 spot and got Chris Carson. Shout out to Adam for having him the week before in Evan’s league.
By | 2017-09-20T08:48:08+00:00 September 20th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

Being Wrong On Thursday Night

I was going to write this post yesterday but didn’t have the time which makes the timing of this release poor.

I missed Thursday night’s game by choosing the Bengals. They were giving 6 points at home and covered for exactly 0 minutes of the game. I’m in 2 pick em’s and obviously missed them both. The game was atrocious by the way. Almost unwatchable. After suffering through 3 and half quarters, I was waiting for Andy Dalton to bring the action at the end and it never came. Punt after punt. Horrible football. I have had a weird Andy Dalton feeling throughout his career, at first I thought he was garbage, then I thought he was underrated, now he’s garbage again. I have this same career arc with Flacco.

What I want to touch on this post is getting the Thursday night game wrong is the absolute worst. It sets up the weekend in a bad light when I miss. This game was the epitome of too easy. The Texans are trotting out a rookie and the Bengals are at home after an embarrassing shut out. Perfect time to rise to the occasion and make a statement. Apparently if I think it’s the perfect time, I should go against my “perfect” feeling. When I miss the Thursday night game, not only do I most likely lose money which rarely makes me happy, but I feel like an idiot until Sunday when I get another shot to lose that feeling. Not fun.

By | 2017-09-16T08:40:53+00:00 September 16th, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

Think Of A Worse Way To Start The Season…You Can’t

To add insult to injury, Bud comments on my last post needling not only my post, but my incorrectness and my bank account. Brutal. Week 5 already has a big red bulls-eye circling it. Onward to some misery.

To go along with the shock of the Patriots getting beat at home in the season opener, with a 9 point spread, I managed to to last exactly 0 games in the losers pool which I decided to play for the first time. There were 3 9 point spreads (Pats, Steelers, and Bills) and I figured that the Pats were easily the best team and would have no problem defeating the Alex Smith led Patriots. Obviously that was incredibly wrong and it cost me $50 for the losers and $70 on the game. People are supposed to last the entire SEASON in the loser’s pool and I couldn’t make it 1 game. I hope this is a sign of “it can’t get any worse” instead of a “dude, give up.” Fortunately I didn’t get hurt too much in fantasy as only one guy I played had Gillislee to go along with Cooks and the Pats D. The 7 unit loss puts me back at even for the season as we plod on to week 1. This game is the perfect example of if you are so sure something is going to happen, do the opposite.

 

By | 2017-09-08T09:24:53+00:00 September 8th, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments

Ready To Sweat

Who doesn’t love a nice Sat & Sun sweat? For me I have about 3k of sweating to do over this weekend if all goes right. Let’s dive in:

  • Frank Paone hosted a Fantasy Golf Tournament that revolved around the 5 majors (including the Players). 40+ people entered at $75 each creating a nice little prize pool. Each low aggregate of the tourny wins $375 and the winner of the lowest score of the 5 combined wins $750+. I’m currently ahead of the 2nd place guy by 20 strokes for the low round aggregate with a chance to win this tournament outright. Since I passed 5 guys, I don’t get hit with a major penalty of missing the cut. As it so happens, the guy in 2nd place is also in 2nd outright. We share 3 of the same golfers in ZJ, Fowler, and Finau. He needs Rory and Patrick Reed to beat Paul Casey and Adam Scott by 20 strokes for me to lose the $775. For 1st place of the PGA, it’s still to early to call but I’m obviously in a nice spot in 1st (same scenario with Rory and Reed to beat Casey and Scott)

Total Win Percentage: 98% 

PGA Win Percentage 33%

  • I had a bye in week one of the fantasy baseball playoffs and am currently in the Semi Finals against a guy who I’ve had some history with. This scenario is a bit odd but I’ve been taking the short end of the stick over and over again. Let’s start with me dropping Bellinger earlier in the season (I read he was being sent back down to Triple A and Adrian Gonzalez was coming back up) and this guy picking him up. Then I dropped Dylan Bundy 3 weeks ago and this guy scooped him and hit me for 20 with a start on Monday and he gets another start today. In what I thought was a good move on my bye week, I picked up Andrew Cashner for a double start this week who then scratched. Last night I felt like I had to stream so I picked up Edwin Jackson who is an RP, SP (instead of an SP, RP) and this caused me to drop one of my RP’s (Raisel Iglesias) who went for 9.9 points last night and Edwin got PPD (he pitches today but still). My catcher, Wilson Contreras, went to the DL as well this week. So as all of these things are going against me, I’m going to need my bats to show up. He has 4 pitchers today and then 2 tomorrow including Chris Sale (he can also stream once). I’m spot starting James Shields today at +130 which is a huge if, but I have to have some luck on my side. I’m looking at another stream tomorrow and I have Ervin going on Sunday. So it’ll be my 4 pitchers against his 6 (7 if he streams).

Chance To Win: 35%

  • I have more action on the PGA as well. I put 10 dollars on Louis at 70-1 and 5 more at 40-1. He’s currently in 5th place at 14-1. I also have 4 on Henrik Stenson to win 600 which is unlikely. I did mange to pass all 6 people in 1 DK team which is always a good chance to cash. The lineup is Cantlay, Kuchar, Lovemark, Matsuyama, Reavie, and Stenson. Xander Schauffele and Daniel Berger prevent 2 other teams from passing 6 so I’m hoping for maybe a min cash on those ones if I get lucky.
  • I played some Bovada Blackjack today for the fun of it and saw I had a $150 bonus. Nice. After playing about 10 hands of blackjack I was curious how long it would take me to earn the bonus. I was greeted with this message.

Almost there!

By | 2017-08-12T09:47:53+00:00 August 12th, 2017|Fantasy|0 Comments