Running Hot

Not here to brag…but here to brag.

Finished in 19th place last night out of 2941 for a cash of $150, $12 entry. The guy in 1st had TJ which only .82% of lineups picked. It’s 2 cashes in a row using players that I’m barely aware of. I will note though that after a month or two using Labs for basketball, I’m getting better with players that get recommended more often. I also enjoy watching the games and it’s a fun sweat when you’re in the money. Like Happy Gilmore as a hockey player, this money will be used for more fantasy golf tournaments.

 

 

No one cares about bowling but I’ll entertain myself. My new ball has been red hot the last 3 series rolling 706, 608, 658. The high games respectively were 290, 233, and 246. I’d say I was most proud of last night closing off about 25 straight frames with at least 4 ten pin hits. The only open of the night was some trash ball that I just didn’t have focus on that left me with an odd 3 pin leave. I’ve been putting in the work so it’s nice to see some results finally.

I cashed in 5th place out of 86 in a playoff football pool for $80 profit. Nothing major but still ahead of the crowd. Should’ve picked more Eagles which is kind of a travesty being from Philly.

Got to take advantage when you’re running hot.

By | 2018-02-13T09:33:06+00:00 February 13th, 2018|Fantasy|Comments Off on Running Hot

TC Does Fantasy Basketball!

I entered an NBA DraftKings tournament last night after picking Devin Booker for my Tuesday night entry. He’s out 2-3 weeks. I don’t know much about basketball, but I have a subscription to FantasyLabs that I pay $60 a month for, so sort of should use it. I put together a line up that went better than expected last night. With 11 minutes remaining for Greg Monroe, I was in 1st.

This is the text conversation I had with Adam to give you an idea on how much I know about basketball.

I ended up getting 4th for $100 victory and this gives me some ammo for tonight and then NFL. Chris Paul ended up having a monster game for 2 people to pass me and then some stat correction moved that cuck Elevman in front of me. Let’s see if lightning strikes twice.

By | 2017-12-14T16:14:41+00:00 December 14th, 2017|Fantasy|Comments Off on TC Does Fantasy Basketball!

Wipe Out

I put the Excel sheet in fire which is misleading because that usually means you’re hot. This is more being shown as going up in flames.

After rattling off 9 straight losses and 39.6 units, I have ended the run of 9 weeks and $200 dollars. I’m not entirely sure how it says I lost 27, so there may be a mistake there somewhere. I had a few Blackjack hits in that account that also may not be taken into consideration which is another explanation for the imbalance.

Not too much to say really other than my major public fade on the Giants was completely wrong. Rather than trying to figure out that game, I took a macro perspective of the public always loses and that was wrong in this instance. Egg on me. I was also completely off on the 49ers at home as Drew Stanton was asked to do little with A Pete running the ball 37 times. Egg on me. In desperation, the Raider game was to keep me afloat and the 2 point conversion at the end of the game sank the ship. I’ll probably take a little break and then reload on Sunday. I’ll tally up the total later but college football killed me this year.

I had minor success in DK as I cashed in 4 out of 4 money lineups. I placed in the $100 Spy, $50 Red Zone, and Sunday Mill. I also narrowly edged out a 3 person $50 league to win about 200 on the day and get me back what I lost last week. The account is still at a K, so more lineups will ensue as the season winds down. I made 2 really bad calls with Russell Sheppard and Chris Thompson which prevented a bigger week. You can’t have a guy go for 1.1 and except to have success and I went too far out on a limb. I’m still learning where that limb is too far. Nailing the defense is also key and I’ve been pretty bad.

From a fantasy perspective, and I’m sure people care about this the least, ss long as Theo Riddick goes for under 15, I’ll have a 2-2 week and put 2 teams at 5-4, 1 at 4-5, and 1 at 3-6. Fine striking points for the playoffs.

By | 2017-11-06T10:37:42+00:00 November 6th, 2017|Fantasy|Comments Off on Wipe Out

Bad JuJu

When you’re on the roller coaster of life, you expect the ups and downs. This was a down week.

I’ll start with what wasn’t horrible and my continuing effort to make $200 last 16 weeks. I brought myself almost back to even in my sports betting. CFB is absolutely killing me week after week. Adam, now the 5 and 0 man betting baseball, should get some credit for keeping me alive with these World Series bets. I didn’t listen to him on game 1 if you were wondering. I want to add that I watched a Periscope with Warren Sharp and Evan Silva last night and they were where I got the Seahawks and Chargers picks. It was neat to hear his analysis and how good the Pats are at “mortar kicks” and how bad the Chargers were on 3rd down and their mystery use of Hunter Henry. Up to 76 bets though, so I’m hanging with the juice.

My season long fantasy week was saved by a Harrison Butker barrage last night to eek 1 game out by .1. I still went 1-3 though and am still shaking my head over Rock’s comeback. Note to fantasy players, it doesn’t matter if the projection %’s say 99% – 1%, you can still lose. How? When Yahoo! has a projection at 5, and the guy goes for 30, that % means jack shit. If you couldn’t guess, that player was JuJu Smith-Schuster. It also didn’t help when Nuk exploded in the 2nd half and Jimmy Graham scored 2 second half TD’s to basically turn my 99% to a loser in a matter of hours. 2 leagues I sit at 3-5, 1 at 4-4, and the other at 5-3. Looking to make the playoff push.

After my DFS success, I followed it up with no movement last week and -$230 this week. I upped my buy ins and reduced the tournaments in a go big or go home push. I went home. Total whiff on the Texans and I wasn’t on LeSean.

By | 2017-10-31T11:57:09+00:00 October 31st, 2017|Fantasy|4 Comments

The Gambling Mentality

I had someone text this to me yesterday:

If you watched the game last night, you’d know the home team mopped up. Today I feel like a genius. Why?

I had no inkling at all on this game and said I like the home team. I didn’t consider the injuries, the players, any trends, or what type of game was going to be played and I won. It wasn’t well thought out. Yet some reason I feel smart.

I’m fairly certain this is why people gamble and the best reason I can describe for why I do it. I don’t gamble to make money. The money is nice but whether I win or lose, I’m not in it to retire. I’m also not in it to lose money I work hard to earn. I gamble within my means and it’s more of a leisure activity instead of a money maker. That being said, I love being right. The satisfaction and reward for nailing a game is earning more money to bet again. I’m currently on week 8 with the same $200 I started the NFL season with and I’m approaching 70 bets with that money. Sure I’ve been all in 4 times and this run could have ended, but as is, LET’S FUCKING GO. That was a capitalized LFG for the Seahawks and Chargers this week. Sorry Rob.

By | 2017-10-27T14:39:48+00:00 October 27th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

Gambling Is Fun!

Tuesday’s are good review days after all the action ends. I’ve been AI 3 times since last Wednesday which generally isn’t a good way to gamble but my head is still above water in the Bovada account. I’m down about 80 bucks for the season but for making 63 bets, I’ll take it. It’s funny how the trends go with winning 4 in a row and then losing 4 in a row.

Coming off my nice win in DK I entered 6 lineups and thankfully won 1 $50 5 man, winner take all, for a $3 dollar profit. It was the last lineup I threw together saying to myself that I had to have some exposure to Zeke and Dak. Onto next week.

My fantasy teams went 2-2 and I’m in the hunt in all 4 leagues. I’m 4-3 in 2 and 3-4 in the others. My teams have varying degrees of issues but I’m pretty sure everyone does at this point. Not playing Derek Carr against Adam cost me the W.

By | 2017-10-24T11:34:09+00:00 October 24th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

Where The Win Puts Me At

Winning 3k sounds tremendous, but it’s not all fun and games. This win is essentially making up for all the gambling work that I’ve done over the past year to put me in the “green” for a set amount of time. PLUS, the money is taxable money which people who consistently lose don’t have to worry about.

DraftKings
Deposited: $1205 since 1/1/2017
Withdraw: $0.00
Net: -$1,205

Bovada
Deposited $1,300 including fees since 1/1/2017
Withdraw: $300, still $100 in the account
Net: $-900

Sugarhouse

 

So without looking into Casino wins and losses you can see that the $2,250 (net) will put me ahead a few hundred dollars over the course of the year for my gambling addiction fun. I actually think I can deduct the $810 from the 3k and only tax the 2,200 as income, but I’d need someone to explain that to me. Either way, I’m going to move 2k out of the DraftKings account and leave 1k for a new roll moving forward. This new roll is well earned for all the time I’ve spent and hopefully will give me some more flexibility in a week to week investment. Many people would look at that like, “hey, you won 3k, you’re rich”. Not exactly. It’s more like I’m getting some of my own money back that I conveniently loaned to Bovada and other members of Draftkings. You’re welcome! Cue up the insta Rob Kelley like.

By | 2017-10-16T10:35:54+00:00 October 16th, 2017|Fantasy|1 Comment

When A Plan Comes Together

After getting my clocked clean last week in Draftkings, losing 100% of my investment on 9 lineups, I took a more limited approach in week 6. I created 5 DraftKings lineups ranging from $8 to-$50, mostly in GPP’s. I added a $50 dollar line up as more of a hail mary type investment, as I’ve been losing all season and it seemed like a good time to gamble. I was recovering from a Friday late night and didn’t do much on Saturday except read about football. Total loser. However, this time investment led to a good story.

I met Adam, Evan, and Steve at Miller’s on Delaware Ave for the 1pm games. The setup was good for football and the pricing was much more affordable than Fox and Hound. Adam and I got there first and I showed him my Draftkings line up. He said, “I don’t want to give you advice” (or something to that effect) and I said I want to hear it. He said that he’s been to Phoenix Stadium twice and it’s a difficult place to play in for an away team. I had a Jameis to DeSean stack in the $50 lineup. He went to he bathroom and I had a decision to make. I took Adam’s advice and moved to Kirk Cousins and Amari Cooper in place of the TB stack.

Evan and I know that you have to get started early to do some damage and my team was ready. Cousins to Chris Thompson was a cheap 51.8 pts that only ~2% of the league had combined (each was 10% owned so I’d guess the stack was much less). Mark Ingram was 31.9% owned and rightfully so. AB was a guy who I paid up for and came through in spades. John Brown was my cheap WR who did his job and Amari Cooper was my worst pick. I tell Evan that we have to think about paying up for Gronk every week and he was a dynamite 4x. Mickinnon (34.2% owned) was what was expected from his talent. The Texans D was an obvious pick against the Browns.

The team won by 15.4 points and I added 3k to my roll. This lineup would have been 34th in the Sunday Mill and I would have cashed for $1,500. Lucky timing and the advice from Adam proved differential. I sculpted the lineup and he added the finishing touches. I tried to give him money and he didn’t take it. I already decided on an amount I would give him but I’m asking the audience. What does Adam deserve?

What Should Adam Get?

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I did use Fantasy Labs and PFF to help me create this lineup. Feels right to give some positive advertising after writing this piece.

By | 2017-10-15T20:29:42+00:00 October 15th, 2017|Fantasy|3 Comments

Strike While It’s Hot

I haven’t checked in to the blog in a few days so I’ll revert to some old, boring, post material. All has been well but I’ve been busy with other projects and this website has been taking a back seat. I hate when other people say “they are so busy” because you can be busy doing laundry. Everyone can be busy.

Last week I devoted nearly 0 time to football and had a fine run. This week I’ve been spending too much time looking at it and will probably crap out but you never now I’ve been running hot so take that for what it’s worth. I’ve taken Northwestern +14 and Georgia -18 for my noon action. I’m not good with NCAAF as a fair warning.

Picks

Jags @ Steelers – 10 Units on Jags +8 – You should know that I rarely make decisions by myself. I pool as much info as I can find and if it sticks out to me as trustworthy, then I’ll gauge how much action I want to have exposed to it. Evan Silva wrote “And I believe Jacksonville’s defense is good enough to keep this game closer than the spread suggests” With Ramsey and Bouye back there, I agree. Yes, I think Le’Veon is going to run all over this team. Yes, I think that the Jags offense sucks. Because I think this strongly about those last two points, it points me towards knowing I don’t know anything and taking the Jags. FWIW, Adam does not like this pick.

Cardinals @ Eagles – 10 Units on Cardinals +6.5 – I’m from Philly so you’d think it’s criminal to bet against the home team. When I see a money opportunity, I don’t let allegiance get in the way. I don’t believe this should make me a bad person. The bottom line here is that the Eagles are not a team that capitalizes on mistakes and blows teams out of the water. They beat the Redskins by 13, lost to the Chiefs by 7, needed a 61 yarder to win by 3, and narrowly beat the 0-4 Chargers by 2 in a home “away” game. Jalen Mills has a 44.1 grade in PFF and ranks 86 out of 100+.  Rasul Douglas has a 54.6 grade ranking 68. Rodney McLeod has a 37.1 grade at safety. Carson Palmer isn’t as bad as people say and all he’s going to do is throw. Who is going to stop these targets? No one. I’m not rooting for the Eagles to lose but they aren’t covering 6.5 points. PS. I think Jaron Brown has a big day.

 

DraftKings

By | 2017-10-07T10:46:17+00:00 October 7th, 2017|Fantasy|2 Comments

Keep Me Out Of The Sheep Laboratory

Today at 8:10 am I got a from the CEO of Fantasy Labs, Jonathan Bales, about Fantasy Labs being acquired by the Chernin Group.

We are very excited to announce that FantasyLabs has been acquired by The Chernin Group. As part of the deal, The Chernin Group has also purchased sportsbetting analytics companies Sports Insights and SportsAction, as well as hired legend Chad Millman (formerly of ESPN) as Head of Content.

This disappointed me. Why you ask? What has happened with Barstool will take place with Fantasy Labs. If what happens with Barstool happens with labs, dilution will occur. There may be more material, but it won’t be the same because as more people start getting involved, the original team’s ideas start to dissipate and the loyalty that got them there, will spread.

The Chernin Group acquired Barstool and has helped promote them to a more mainstream audience. Prior to Chernin with Barstool, I liked the personal touch of the bloggers from each individual city. It was cool to think that you were a part of your city. I used to feel like I could relate to Smitty. Now he’s just another blogger part of a mainstream sports site with millions of people paying attention to whatever “content” they feel is worth creating. I’m not interested in the weak content that their under qualified staff has to offer on pretty much every topic. I like their Instagram page with people getting hurt and doing dumb stunts, but I won’t click on any Barstool posts on the site unless I’m bored. I’m worried this will occur with Labs.

You pay for these models.

I’ve been a Labs subscriber for about 3 months and feel like I’m a part of the in crowd of DFS. I pay $60 a month for information that the sheep aren’t aware of. Now that the Chernin Group is a part of Labs, more people will subscribe. Chernin isn’t a dumb group. They will blow up a brand using whatever formula that their smart people come up with. This will introduce Labs to millions of meatheads who will pay $60 for the same info I have access to. Does this make me selfish? Of course it does. But that doesn’t mean that what I’m feeling isn’t universal with the current Labs subscriber base.

Evan Silva – Being mainstream and not selling out.

Smart people will go elsewhere. This is the one part of this acquisition that may be overlooked, or perhaps is thought about and weighed as not crucial. Smart people know that they can’t be part of the crowd. Being part of what the crowd does is a sure fire way to forever exist in the crowd. Most people don’t realize they are part of the crowd. It’s not like someone says, “it’s time to go elsewhere.” However, when I see this type of acquisition take place, I know that what may have been on the on-skirts of “the crowd”, has now become “the crowd”. For that I’m disappointed, but can’t fault anyone because selling out is a part of life that is hard to avoid because it’s what you work to get to.

I haven’t made any money using Fantasy Labs. Their models are helpful but they won’t guarantee you success. There is a lot that goes behind making lineups and the main one is having the bankroll to see it through. I’m a rec player and don’t even care about the money won or loss. However, depending on how this acquisition starts to feel, there’s a good chance I’ll take my money elsewhere and see what other “insiders” have to offer. I’m sure I’m part of a minority, but that’s where you want to play from.

By | 2017-10-03T13:34:00+00:00 October 3rd, 2017|Fantasy|Comments Off on Keep Me Out Of The Sheep Laboratory

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