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WGC Dell Match Play Predictions

It’s fair to say that last year’s WGC Dell Match Play got me into professional golf. Sure the aspect of betting and Draftkings has helped, but I was hooked when Louis went to the finals last year and I had bets to start and finish along the way. Here is the post I made last year when they were down to the final 4. Of course I lost and the Aussie to the right took it down, but it was intense the entire time.

This is truly one of my favorite events of the year and you can see my picks here. I have Louis in the finals obviously against Rory and Rory winning. This is strictly a hedge as I already have Louis as a 40-1 shot for $20. Day has been off his game and DJ is a pussy when it comes to match play even if he is the best player in the world. DJ lost to Louis last year if you were wondering. I like Spieth a lot too but he’s going to get mowed down by Louis for the 2nd year in a row. Obviously we start today with getting out of the group. Cheers to golf.

By | 2017-03-22T09:39:10+00:00 March 22nd, 2017|Sports|1 Comment

Who Do You Listen To?

First and foremost, do not listen to me. Here is why:

  1. I react emotionally
  2. I think I’m smarter than I actually am
  3. I have bias for some reason or another
  4. Nobody knows shit

#4 is what you should take away from this post. Unless it’s Bill Belichick giving you advice on football, be wary of everyone.

NCAA Tournament Brackets

If you don’t fill out a bracket, you’re pretty much a stick in the mud and not a fun person. This is a blanket statement because there isn’t a better tournament on the entire planet and these next 4 days of sports are one of the best times of the entire year. It takes 5 minutes, it may cost you 10 dollars, just do it and enjoy it without worrying that you don’t know anything.

Jeff is picking against dunk city. He hasn’t seen this gif.

A fascinating part of this tournament is people who supposedly know what they are talking about give advice. These people range from commentators, former coaches, former players, and anyone else who looks pretty for TV. What you’ll notice is everyone has varying opinions so they can’t all be right. My strategy is to listen to everyone, than compile that info into what I think works the best.

Here are the teams that the ESPN analysts pick to make the final four – Arizona, Gonzaga, UNC, Duke, Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville and UCLA. There are some straggling WVU, Iowa State, Florida State, Michigan, Wichita State, and Oregon picks in there as well. That’s roughly 1/4 of all the teams in the tournament. I would not be surprised if there is a team that makes the final 4 that isn’t one of these teams.

That being said, you need to make a bracket to plays towards whatever pool you are picking. If it’s a pool with 200 people, you’d be an idiot to pick Villanova (16.4%) or UNC (15.8%)  who will be this years most picked champion. Especially since we are in Philly, the only way you win outright is if you outpick the other games of 40 other people if Nova manages to win. Not happening. You need to go off grid with the Jayhawks or Arizona to give yourself the best chance.

I listen to one true source for my upsets…VEGAS. Did you know the #12 seed Middle Tennessee State is favored by 1 point over Minnesota. #10 Wichita State is 6 point favorites over Dayton. Obviously you can’t see the 2nd round spreads but at least to get an idea of how good the team you are picking as an upset. I tend to use this indicator as who I then choose to move on further.

A final thought is the conference the team plays in. You could deduce that the Big 12 is a far superior conference than the Big 10. Picking the top 4 teams (Kansas, WVU, Baylor, and Iowa State) to make runs verse (Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) makes sense. These teams mostly play each other so you have no idea what out of conference basketball looks like until this part of the year. Your guess is as good as mine.

That being said, I like to go with hot teams who won their conference championships. My brackets will have varieties of Nova, Kansas, Arizona, UNC with sprinkles of some Shocking teams, Wolverines, and Cyclones. FYI, I was close to last in my picks in last years brackets.

 

By | 2017-03-15T13:53:37+00:00 March 15th, 2017|Sports|2 Comments

Sixers Back to Tanking!

Colangelo speaks at 10:30 so I’ll squeeze this post in before more news comes out. The one positive I’ll give the Sixers is that they have everyone talking about them. I’ve heard mostly negative comments about the trades regarding Ilyasova and Nerlens. Most people say they received nothing for these two players. The people who are holding on to dear life are saying that they weren’t part of the long term plan anyway. I have no idea what that means.

I’m going to throw some facts, not wishful thinking, about what is actually transpiring and why the Sixers could very well be in tank mode for the next 3 years.

  1. The good ol’ days.

    The Sixers are winning games! – The past 3 seasons the Sixers won 19,18, and 10 games with Brett Brown at the helm. This year they have already won 21 and pointing in the right direction. I’m going to point out that the combined record of the teams they have beaten are 506 -689. Only 3 teams out of 21 had winning records and the Clippers didn’t have Chris Paul. Their wins are coming against bad teams. Noted.

  2.  Joel Embiid – The Sixers are 13-18 in the 31 games that Embiid has played in. He is a game changer. If you want to believe that the Sixers have a chance, you’re entire belief should lie in this man. Remember, he got injured again on limited minutes and not playing back to back games which is serious concern. It’s hard to believe that he’ll ever play more than 60 games in a season. Also trading away his best friend seems moronic.
  3. Simmons will be back – Ben Simmons put up on Instagram a frown face and then took it down last night. People are speculating it could have been about the trades or bad news on his foot. Colangelo may elaborate. The problem is that Ben has played exactly 0 games in the NBA and is recovering from a Jones fracture. KD missed 60+ games with the same injury in ’14-’15 and seems to be back to full health which is a good sign for Simmons. At this point in time, it’s hard to know exactly what you have in Simmons but he’ll still be an upgrade at the point guard position.
  4. They can’t draft – The most common argument to why the Sixers will be good is because they have lots of draft picks lined up. Over the last 3 years they’ve missed on most every pick except Embiid and hopefully Simmons should work out. MCW was picked at 11 and “wasn’t the future.” Okafor isn’t worth a 1st round pick anymore (he went #3). Nerlens (#6) was traded for two 2nd round picks. Saric (used Payton at the 10th to obtain) is a fine role player but I don’t see him developing into a superstar. The best pick they made in the last 5 years was Nik Vucevic in 2011 who was traded away by the old management. Nice slideshow of all their picks over the past 5 years.

Why the Sixers Are Back to Tank Mode

They don’t have good basketball players. Embiid is a beast. When, and only when he plays, are the Sixers going to win games. Simmons will improve the team. The rest of this team stinks. Sam gave TJ McConnell an A- for this season. That’s great but he averages 6 points a game and shoots 21% from 3 point land. An A should be given out to A players. Stauskus is limited on defense and wouldn’t start on most teams. Sam writes “solid all-around player” for Gerald Henderson. When did avg 9.7pts, 2.1 rebs,1.7 assts, and .2 blocks a game turn into a solid all around player? These standards are great for a team that stinks.

I’m not a hater. I’m giving an opinion on a team that has spent 3 years being the worst team in the league and you have to be critical at what those 3 years have got you. As such, it’s an All-Star center who can’t finish a season, the 1st pick of the draft who we’ll see what he delivers (hopefully soon but we’ll be waiting another year), and a bunch of, well, players. This trade deadline and the moves they made was not forward progress. You’re still banking on picks that haven’t delivered in the past as sure things.

Per Jeff’s Comment

By | 2017-02-24T11:41:29+00:00 February 24th, 2017|Sports|3 Comments

Ersan Ilyasova Gets Traded For…Nothing

I don’t see it.

Technically the Sixers received a 2nd round pick and Thiago Splitter. Splitter will most likely be waived and act as a mentor in the meantime. This website, who is far more knowledgeable than I, rated the trade an A for the Sixers.

In the short term they lose a bit of shooting, but they’re not winning a ton of games this year anyway, and Dario Saric is probably ready to step into Ilyasova’s shoes. This might also be an indication that Embiid will miss more time than originally thought, but that’s not for sure. Turning an expiring journeyman into useful assets is a smart move either way.

From an outsider’s view, I understand that the Sixers are not competitive and doing any moves to help their future and cap space makes sense. Ilyasova probably would have tested free agency and left no matter what so it didn’t make much difference.

The sad reality of this situation is that your 2nd best player is worth a 2nd round pick. Ersan averaged 14.8 pts a game, 6 reb, 2 assts, and leads the league in total charges drawn. He’s not physically special, not the fastest, but is a smart player who hustles and plays good D. The idea is that the departure of Ersan frees up time for Dario. I don’t think Dari0 plays anywhere near as big as Ersan and would get dominated by 4’s in the league.

This post isn’t trashing the Sixers. I was actually worried when the Sixers went on that little winning streak that they are progressing faster than I thought. My 1k bet with Sam was in jeopardy and much faster than I had expected. Bottom line is that they have 1 hurt all star (Embiid), a 2nd hurt potential good player (Simmons), and a bunch of wet trash truck juice. I don’t doubt there will be many changes in the future, but for now, the losing continues with a future that depends on injury prone players staying healthy.

By | 2017-02-23T11:36:33+00:00 February 23rd, 2017|Sports|1 Comment

Frostbite 5 Miler – 2017 – Better With Age

This is the 18th year the Frostbite 5 Miler has been held and it runs like a well oiled machine. The race is run flawlessly (well the National Anthem mics were a bit shaky) and this year’s weather was perfect. The race starts exactly at 9am with minimal pre-race speech, and this is what runners hope for. The attention to the race itself, and not the amenities, is one of the core reasons why this race draws so many fast runners from the area. Special thanks to my mom for the cool featured image above.

This is my blog so you are going to have to suffer through my race story. I woke up at 6am and ate 2 sunny side up eggs and had a coffee. The coffee, although not the best hydrating drink, is used to make me poop. Every runner who’s raced should know that you want as little waste in your system as possible.

I got to the race and parking was well organized by volunteers and I had no trouble. I got my race bib which was a seamless process and ran 800 meters on the track. I stretched by the starting line and met my mom so she could hold on to my clothes. I was good to go.

Free Nolan Paint advertising. They use our scrapers.

The day was beautiful and you can’t ask for better conditions. The race went off and I started within myself which was the way to go because I wasn’t staying with the lead pack one way or another. I apologize for not getting any of my mile splits as this was the one detail I missed for better accuracy on the race description.

I settled in to a nice pace where I was behind the main pack and stayed with some stragglers. I wasn’t getting passed and at mile 2 there is a nice sized uphill that was wearing me down. Fortunately I trained on some hill workouts on the treadmill and even though I was huffing and puffing as I got to the top, I recovered quickly on the downhill. I had a runner or 2 pass me but it was wasn’t overwhelming so I knew I was in a good spot.

At mile 3, I was wondering to myself how much longer could I hold the pace as my legs were feeling the lactic acid. Once you slow down and start getting passed, you’re toast. When I made the turn to the street around mile 4, I knew I was going to make it even though I had no watch and no clue what my time was. My biggest fear came when there was a girl who was on my tail.

What a view.

I didn’t know if I was going to finish at 28, or 29 minutes so a girl being near me was trouble. When I made the 2nd to last right hand turn, I could hear some people saying, “there’s the #1 girl.” Great. I had a little bit of speed left in my legs and knew I could kick it in if I had to so unless she had a Usain Bolt kick, I was going to be fine. I made my final surge and gave a fist pump because I saw the time and it was 28 minutes low. The exact time was 28:07, 24th place, and about a 30 second PR over last year.

At 33, I’m pretty happy I can still improve year over year. I attribute it to a healthier lifestyle and working harder on the treadmill in the winter. All in all, I was pleased with the outcome and want to thank the entire Ambler Area Running Club for their hard work hosting such an anticipated, long established, race.

Results link here.

By | 2017-02-18T11:32:07+00:00 February 18th, 2017|Running|1 Comment

Fuck it Dude, Let’s Go Bowling

I haven’t been posting the most riveting material (although the William Penn Snaps won’t soon be forgotten), and this post won’t buck that trend.

Snaking Back Monday was the highest scoring team in the league last week and was looking to repeat. We started off like a freight train with Weens and I in the 230’s, and our team well over 800. Game 2 was a bizarre game where we had at least 10 total team splits and Sam was our highest bowler at 164. We needed to do better in game 3. Fortunately I told the team that I don’t fuck around in the 3rd game and this proved to be true. After a 9 spare, strike, 9 spare, I closed out the game with 9 straight strikes for a 270. The rest of the team wasn’t too shabby either with Evan in the 170’s, Sam in the 2’s, and Weens was either 190 or light 200’s. We finished with an 860 game and I wouldn’t be surprised if it holds for highest of the league this week.

I’m all about tooting my own horn as Shee would know, and 270’s in back to back weeks is no joke. I’ve been working on my game and I’m ready.

Sam and I have the $1,000 perfect game bet and this should be over in a month (maybe weeks). Sam can’t work on his game because his wittle wrist hurts and I’m getting better every week. I notched my highest series this week with a 668 and the 700 series in league play will follow shortly. People who don’t bowl a lot might look at these numbers and say, “hey, you could be a professional.” Not likely. I’ve gotten good at North and South Bowls oil patterns. I know you play right and move right as the night continues. Bowling is a little easier than golf where it’s easier to repeat the motion. I tell myself to make sure I stay aggressive (ala Pete Weber in a clip I couldn’t find), follow through, and keep the ball right. Last night our team did so much better staying off the Jersey side of the lane and it proves how much better you can score. My spare game is still improving as I have to get better on the 7 and 10 which can still give me some problems. Aside from that, I’m refining my strike ball to leave less 10 pins and can rattle them off if the lane cooperates. It’s not natural talent either. It’s the same concept that the longer and harder you work on an activity, the better you get. Safe to say, it’s paying off.

By | 2017-02-14T10:08:27+00:00 February 14th, 2017|Sports|0 Comments

Hellmuth vs Perkins

This could be my favorite poker video. You should probably watch it before I start commenting on it but in the first minute, Hellmuth gets this idea he is being cheated for the sake of the show. It’s a big money cash game which is why the tension is so high. Hellmuth loses a 240,000 pot and it rattles him. Perkins sort of makes this hoot and hollering sound which annoys Phil.

Perkins says, “it’s not going to change your life” and Hellmuth has the best response I’ve ever heard, “Buddy, you’re such a goofball you missed the point completely. Are you that stupid, really?”

Perkins is a wealthy business man and it’s humorous that he has no respect for Hellmuth. When Perkins shows Hellmuth the flush and he comments “this motherfucker.” The next hand is, “what the fuck is going on here.” Then, “moron, motherfucker.”

By | 2017-02-11T11:59:27+00:00 February 11th, 2017|Sports|1 Comment

Winning is Winning

We both play Ping drivers. Coincidence?

Last night I suffered 3rd degree burns all over my body. Head to toe. I’m still recovering from the heat that is exuding through my body. Name someone who was more right on the Super Bowl than me? You can’t.

Before I even start with the Super Bowl, I had a bet on Louie at 66-1 at the end of Round 1 of the Phoenix Waste Management Open to win. While everyone else was getting prepared for “the big game”, Louie was co-leader after a birdie on 17. He parred the 18 and ended up losing by a stroke to Deki and Webb Simpson. Back to back at this tourney for Matsuyama is insane. For 10 dollars, I can’t think of many bets that I’ve been closer on with those types of odds. My DK team also finished 252 out of 5882 which isn’t too shabby.

To the Super Bowl. If you bet the Falcons, you should be kicking yourself today. What happened last night is the exact reason why you bet the Patriots. It shouldn’t have turned out that way. It just couldn’t. But it did. It did because that’s just the way it is, specifically with gambling. I won about $200 on the Pats and the 20 on the Devontae Freeman TD turned out to be exactly on point at 8-1. Decent haul. Nothing major but it gives me good ammo for the upcoming March Madness tournament. If I can make the money last until then, we’ll see.

By | 2017-02-06T10:13:08+00:00 February 6th, 2017|Sports|0 Comments

200 to 2k Update

I’m currently sitting at exactly even after the first round of the playoffs after a 50 dollar loss on the under of the Alabama – Clemson game. To make matters worse, I was sitting in first place in the College Bowl Mania Pick Em, had the last game for the most points, knew the two people behind me were going to take Clemson, and I failed to make the switch and lost 150 because of it. Bad management.

Falcons / Seahawks

Remember the name Paul Richardson for next year.

Already kicking myself for waiting too long to jump on this line. When I first looked I saw the Falcons were giving 4. This struck me as a fairly large number but if you’ve read my previous posts, you’d know that I believe the Falcons are a Super Bowl contender this year. The line has since moved to 6 and I don’t see this as an obvious choice. Everyone knows the Seahawks are better at home and only 3-4-1 this year on the road. In the meeting this year at Seattle, they edged the Falcons 26-24 with Matty Ice throwing 3 TD’s to 0 INT’s. Julio had a big game as the Seahawks stopped the run completely. I expect more of the same from the Falcons in this meeting at the Georgia Dome. SOOOOO, where does that leave me?

I think the Falcons win the game and the Seahawks cover. 6 points is too many points to lay to the dangerous Seahawks. I know their defense is banged up but they have emerging offensive talents with Rawls, Baldwin, and the came out of left field Paul Richardson. I think their D is still solid enough but I could certainly be wrong if they get beaten early like the Steelers did to the Dolphins. Read that last line again. Do you really think this will happen to the Seahawks? I do not.

Patriots / Texans

  • The person who saved this picture titled it “biggaytom”

  • Get the likes ready Rob.
  • There have only been 3 games in the past 30 years that have had a higher point spread than 16.
  • The Patriots were 13-3 this year ATS.
  • The Texans were 2-6 on the road this year.
  • The Patriots have not given up a rushing TD since week 8.
  • If you bet the Belichick Patriots from the moment he was hired, you’d be 170-125-8 against the spread (about 57.6 percent)
  • “The historic 16-point opener was quickly bet down (by professionals),” Scott Cooley, BookMaker’s odds consultant, told SportsLine.com. “The public has had no qualms laying the chalk with New England.”
  • I read one tweet a few days ago that gave the statistics on how the Patriots fared against double digit spreads and can’t find it. I remember it was favorable but I know that means little.

Let’s get one thing straight, there is nothing worse than betting on a huge dog, rooting for them, and watching them get punished. This happened in week 3 when the Pats sent out rookie Jacoby Brissett to manage the game against the “rising star” Brock Osweiler. I bet the Texans this game for the exact reasoning that a rookie QB has to suck and Brock will be better than when he was on Denver. What happened was that it didn’t matter if they sent out Rob Kelley as the QB that game. The Texans couldn’t move the ball and it was a sad state of affairs to be a Texans fan in Foxboro that night. Is there any reason to think it will change? The answer is no. Lay the 16 and count your money at the end of the night.

By | 2017-01-14T12:12:54+00:00 January 14th, 2017|Sports|0 Comments

10, 9, 8, 76ers

Can someone clue me into the reason behind the HHH entrance?

I’m not jumping on the Process bandwagon but last night was the first 3 game winning streak the Sixers have had in 3 years. It’s true that the combined record of the team’s they beat were 45-70, but I have to acknowledge that they won 3 games in a row. I get the feeling that this team is genuinely having fun and buying into what Brett Brown is teaching. The players are starting to have more defined roles and don’t seem to mind being role players to the one genuine star, Joel Embiid. Let’s also give full nod to Embiid for showing hustle and speed of a 7-2 player that hasn’t been seen since young Shaq. He is a bonafide stud as long as he stays healthy.

There are still major concerns and this team is very, very far off from being a contender. You can look at Nerlens stat line last night and see a -14 next to his name and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes (he was -8 against the Knicks, and -1 against the Nets). Jahlil sitting the last 3 games, and them winning them all, should also be a major concern along with this comment, “Obviously, it’s a funky situation. Funky for all of us. Right now, I’m the person who’s sitting out.”. You still have Nik Stauskas, Robert Covington, and TJ McConnell in your starting line up which won’t fly against playoff teams.

No longer.

Winning brings out fans and the Sixers are finally, finally, finally, doing some winning. This is what the process trusters like to see. I don’t think you can say the flip is switched but if they start beating the worse teams in the league, they will start moving towards being a .500 team. Once they get there, you can start the next chirping of playoff bound. What I can’t wait to see happen is when the band wagon fans start saying how big of Sixers fans they are, and then the reaction they get from the “process trusters”. Should be a fascinating social experiment.

By | 2017-01-14T11:36:11+00:00 January 14th, 2017|Sports|1 Comment