I hit the Texas-TB under today. Why am I betting baseball unders? Well…it’s because the Action Network is recommending me to do so. Rooting for unders is not fun, but it does appear to be profitable. This is most likely because the public loves the over. It certainly doesn’t mean the under covers all the time. Last night I had the Bos-LAA under and I lost it by the 3rd inning. It’s that the under is so unsexy that it’s like the cheese that stands alone. My point is, in order to make money, you have to go against the crowd and do what’s hard, and that’s called taking unders.
This is how I watch the last few minutes when betting on the under.
The other part of taking many recommended plays by the Action Network is that you can’t blow your wad on one bet. These guys don’t hit 100% of the bets. No one does. You can make money taking some of the better odds that are available. Today I took the guy Djokovic was playing at +200. Did he win? He did not, but finding upsets is key to winning. I took Egypt coming out of their group at +550 for the World Cup. I’m planning on taking Morocco as well. Are you going to take KAT at over 3.5 FT’s tonight and Joe Ingles at under 5.5 assists? These are the bets I’ve been on the last few weeks. I’m doing fine, and would be doing better, if I didn’t make picks on my own accord like the Cavs over when they had 5 points in the first 9 minutes in game 1. Fucking unders.
I’ll start this post with some golf and end it with some life perspective.
70 line items!
I spent this weekend on a golf trip with 7 other like minded bros. We traveled about 4+ hours to Deep Creek, Maryland where the rents are dirt cheap. Hafer, the spreadsheet aficionado, found us a $950,000 house that we rented for $1,500+ for the weekend. Getting 8 bros together to spend a weekend drinking and golfing in your 30’s is different than a rager in your 20’s. We are all relatively mature and got along the entire trip with literally 0 disagreements the entire time. Except for that one character…
We spent time shooting pool, playing pong, throwing bags, and watching sports while in the house. Essentially enjoying what life has to offer while drinking as many beers as possible. On Friday, we played a $29 course that was in the boonies to start our week. Kuratnick got us started by roping one down the middle while Hafer “birdied” 1 with a miracle shot that I wasn’t blessed to see, and can only imagine what it looked like. My game suffered early on until I rolled in a 12 foot par putt to take a double dot on 7. After that I started hitting the ball cleaner and finished with a respectable 99 (or 101 as I had it). My only bungle was calling lone wolf as Badgerow fired a tee shot into the woods only to have it strike a tree and roll back on the green and 10 feet from the hole.
John Daly statue
Day 2 was sweet livin’. We ventured 40 minutes to Nemacolin resort (rated #16 best course in PA by Golf Digest), specifically the Mystic Rock course. The round was $140 and came with a caddie. We hit some balls at their first class practice facility and then tee’d off. I wasn’t playing great by any means with 3 doubles in the first 4 holes but then I start pulling it together as I started drinking more. I used the caddie’s advice to make a par save on 5 and finished with a 46 on the front. Nothing special. I managed to birdie 11 and added another birdie on 16 (with more caddie help) to finish with a 41 back. Aside from one duffed drive, I was riding the fairway all day off the tee. The caddie also gave me a “tip” which will most likely save me hundreds of strokes throughout my life. Was it worth the pricey cost to play? Absolutely.
Here’s where this blog will get interesting. Having 7 other people together, you notice where they are in each stage of their life. 3 of the guys are married with kids and I’d remark that this is the biggest difference in a person’s life. One guy said to me, “I envy how you can spend money the way you do.” I replied, “I envy the fact you have a family”. What I mean by writing that is that you usually can’t have both. People who act the way I do don’t have responsibilities outside of themselves. What I learned, or already knew / further substantiated, is that no one knows exactly what to do in life. There isn’t a guaranteed path. You go through it the best way that YOU know how to and cross your fingers you are doing it right. Either way, I know that spending time on a weekend like this is living life.
I won’t forget almost smashing that jeep on hole 10 at the Oakland Club. Or the squad of Baker and myself being down 4 cups on our do or die to go to OT and then win the Beer Pong Tournament. Or Shmitt and Hafer’s hospitality for cooking for an entire group. This actually is a funny trait because if it was me, Evan and Kuratnick, we’d all be eating pizza. It’s weekends like this that don’t happen as often as they should. Until next time.
The older I’ve gotten, the more I believe that other life forms exist in the universe. I took a class in college called “Intelligent Life in the Universe”. I thought it would be about aliens and UFO’s and it turned out to be about rocks and plants. After watching an interview with Neil Tyson de Grasse and Katy Perry, she asks him if he thinks there are aliens and he replies with a yes, that’s good enough for me. Here is another great minute from it.
This lead in brings me to Zuckerberg being questioned by Congress because Cambridge Analytica purchased millions of private information of users from Facebook developers. This obviously led to there being a major hole in the privacy regulations of Facebook, which is what he is being nailed for.
Fortunately, I don’t know enough about this to comment on it. I’d guess Facebook tracks every movement you make on your computer and if you aren’t ok with it, you shouldn’t use it. Point aside, Mark Zuckerberg could be from another planet. Watch him drink his water.
Kann den #zuckerberg mal einer anstupsen. Fühl' dich gegruschelt Mark. P.S.: Add mich bei MySpace…
If that’s not straight out of Signs or War of the World, I don’t know what else is. It makes perfect sense though. Some alien life form copied a human being to integrate some application to gather as much information on the human species as possible and do who knows what with it. I hope I’m not around to see it.
REPLAY: Sen Durbin asks #Zuckerberg if he'd be comfortable sharing the name of the hotel he stayed in last night.
The number on the Y axis is out of 100 and is pulled from Google Trends. Maybe it’s comprised of searches and a combination of factors.
Should Google+ be happy with their progress? I created a Google+ page and it was empty. More pointless because no one was using it. You can’t be good at everything I guess.
The decline of SnapChat is evident. It was a combination of changing their UI and it not being as entertaining anymore. I’ll use it from time to time, but it’s not a key App for me. I wouldn’t be able to pinpoint exactly why, but I don’t like using it.
MySpace falling out of existence shows how fickle these can be.
Reddit is popular and will continue to be. It’s where I pulled this chart from. The simplicity, along with a filter of actual users, is tremendous. The content is always top rate.
Twitter has me nervous. I like using it. I don’t tweet though because no one sees it. You need a core following for some reason to make it worthwhile to use. Brilliant people make brilliant tweets. Average people make average tweets.
Facebook on the decline. It’s actually happening. Taking advantage of the private info was too tempting and now their image is damaged. Oddly, Facebook owns Instagram and that is as popular as ever. It’s success? Simplicity. The average user can post wherever the hell they are and feel good about themselves. We’ve all done it before.
I get Twitch. Watching any event live is better than recorded. No way around it and people are using this platform to show events that would not otherwise get recorded. I googled “who owns Twitch” and the answer is Amazon. Very smart move on their part. They are taking over the world along with Elon Musk. Get ready to bow to Bezos and Musk.
I have never once visited Tumblr. I have no urge to look it up but I believe it is a place to make a blog.
These tools are the life blood of our society. Make no mistake. I like looking at what makes them successful. Bigger companies are taking over the world. Whoever has the money makes the decisions.
I know of at least 3 people who will find this worth reading and that’s enough for me.
Day 1 of the runyourpool contest has these 3 people ahead of me in the standings. Bud sits at 1 stroke ahead in 15th place with the strong trio of McIlroy, Hoffman, and ZJ. Adam Scott is not going to help the squad and Casey has plenty of time. Cantlay on the bench could be the saving grace.
Jeff got a huge break with Finau. I honestly thought he was a WD. If you watched what happened, you’d have to think the same thing.
Still, with Sergio eliminated from his team, he’s going to have to rely heavily on Finau and Poulter. -7 is currently in 5th place. We both own Louis and Cameron Smith which obviously will not help me gain ground.
Sam has managed a 2nd place start with a -10. I watched him pick his team last night with about as little research as possible. He went to the odds which is a great place to start. With his limited knowledge, he was banking on Kaymer and Schwartzel (who played great), and I said you may want to check their current seasons. He moved to DeChambeau, Hadwin, and Phil which went well with his core of McIllroy, Kuchar (great pick, his consistency is unmatched with still positive upside ((he will win at some point)), and Steele who is +4 but on the bench.
The guy in 1st place is benefiting from Fred Couples which will not last. My position is 10 back with Louie, Stenson, Casey, Bubba, Cameron Smith, and DeChambeau. The team is different than most and hopefully day 2 will be a position day.
People I know reading this should have done this pool. It’s fun and lasts all 5 majors.
Where to begin. I have about 10 lineups in DK that cost about $150 worth of action. Lineups are all over so I have to wait until more holes get played to comment. I’m currently winning $12 dollars.
I have a $10 bet on Louis at 66-1 to start the tourney. I have another $15 bet on Louis at 40-1. I’m also backing Day at 20-1 for $10 and $5 at 100-1. I have $10 on Stenson at 33-1. $5 on Frittelli @ 250 to 1 which is burnt. This is $55 dollars spent that has good return if it can start shaping up differently.
Spieth was amazing. His iron game was so good that he didn’t even need to use his awesome putting game.
These shots are sticking. To say that his current odds at 2-1 is ridiculous would be an understatement. 25% of this tournament is over. His lead is 2 strokes. This may be incorrect but if you watched that video, it couldn’t get much easier for him. Can you keep that up for 54 holes? No way.
This leaves for opportunity in players only a few strokes back to win some money. My take:
Finau – Regression
Kuchar – Can hang. Win? I don’t know.
Stenson – I expect big things. His game is clicking and he won the British last year. He has the ability which is great at 16-1.
Hoffman – led after round 1 last year after shooting 65. That’s…good. At 40-1, he’s not expected to hang but I feel like his chances are better than that. How can you not like the guy after this exchange.
Hadwin – I like his game and spot. Probably not ready for a win. The books have him at 50-1 which is a long shot at this point.
Reed – Tough. Not sure where he struggles with his complete game because I don’t watch enough. At 25-1, it seems to me that he has upward momentum.
Li Haotong – Don’t think so.
Rory – Pick a better spot for a guy who has “the best player in the world” potential. He won the Fed Ex Cup last year and is coming off a victory 2 or 3 weeks ago. Rory is a bomber off the tee and has game that exceeds standards. HOWEVA, at 5.5-1, I’m not sure he’s worth backing because if you wait a round, it’s only going to get to 3 to 1 even if he dominates.
Cabrerea Bello – Not sold. 40-1 and I wouldn’t touch it.
Weisberger – Good luck staying above 11th. 100-1.
ZJ – Not long off the tee but experienced. I don’t see a win but solid finish. 50-1
Leishman – Sort of like the game. Not certain. 40-1.
Rickie – Game potential is there. At 20-1 it seems like he’d be worth chasing. His win is going to come sooner rather than later.
Phil – I’m not getting the vibe that he can compete. 4 bogeys and 6 birdies is not the type of round that instills hope. I like the 4 birdies, 0 bogey round if I’m looking at a guy who can win. 14-1 seems to pray on the public.
Vijay – Dropping. 300-1
Kodaira – Never heard of him.300-1
Cameron Smith – One of my horses. Young player from Australia who is an excellent putter. 150-1.
Xander – Stretching it at 80-1 even though I know he’s capable of winning.
Louis – 6 birdies which is usually fantastic except he coupled it with 5 bogeys. With a guy who I want to WIN the tournament, I like the volatility. 50-1. As always, i’m on board and will feel horrible if I don’t get it when it hits. Did you see this putt!?!?
I know people will read this who are also in the golf pool, *that I won last year*, but I don’t care. I’m here to either look like an idiot or a genius.
First off, I’ll start with actual information and not my opinion. Guys who are losing steam are Tiger, Jon Rahm, and Rickie Fowler. Reasons include too much hype, bad temper, and off his game respectively. I buy into most of these narratives to be honest. I wouldn’t blame anyone for picking any of these guys because they are incredibly talented and are are receiving odd analysis.
Golfers who are gaining steam are Justin Rose, Paul Casey, and Bubba Watson. People look at course history and current form and these guys are off the charts. These are going to be the highest owned guys and golfers who will not make you killer money in GPP’s.
3 golfers who are not going to be as owned as high as they should be are Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, and Justin Thomas. If you ask me who is going to win, I’d pick one of these 3 guys.
3 guys who I won’t be owning much of are Jordan Speith, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, and Sergio Garcia. Can these guys win the tournament? Yes. Do I think they will. No. I think Spieth is a head case after blowing up on the 12th in 2016. Rory won 2 weeks ago, but got beat by Peter Uilhein and Brian Harman in match play. If Phil hadn’t won for the 1st time in 5 years, no one would be saying shit. Sergio had a kid a few months ago and I am not a fan of the Spaniard and neither are the books. Out of these guys, I’d say Rory will do the best.
Who I Like
These are golfers who I will be putting money on and will be putting into various GPP lineups. Essentially these are guys who I don’t think will be high owned and have a shot to compete.
Louis Oosthuizen – 66-1. He has only played 5 tournaments in 2018 with 2 MC’s and performances of none better than 16th. It’s hard to make any case to select him. I put 10 bucks on him at 66-1.
Henrik Stenson – 40-1. Odds are way off on him. He’s 40-1 and got 4th and 6th in his last 2 tournaments. He stripes the ball a mile with his 3 wood.
Brian Harman – 100-1. Son of Tiger’s old coach Butch Harmon. He’s not a long hitter but has some solid results. He went 4th, 3rd, and 4th in a stretch in January. He found another 5th in March and, despite a poor showing in which he still made the cut at Arnold Palmer, he’s a sneaky, consistent play.
Bryson DeChambeau – 80-1. I don’t like Bryson. Flat out I think he’s a weirdo. At 80-1 though, it may make sense to take notice. He was 2nd in the Arnold Palmer, and was 5th a few weeks before that at the Phoenix Open. Do I think he’ll win? Probably not. He’s worth keeping an eye on.
You can literally make a case for any single golfer in the field. Masters talk is information overload. I do like to spread my lineups, but the goal is to make the cut (which is easier at Augusta) and not pick a shithead who explodes because it’s his first time playing the Masters and he forgets how to play because of nerves or anxiety. For instance, I don’t see a guy like Matt Kuchar imploding whereas Tommy Fleetwood or Alex Noren might self destruct.
Doesn’t Pat Sajack looked pissed here? I’m sure it’s part of the act.
Wheel of Fortune has been running since 1983. Pat Sajack is 71 years old. None of this is relevant to this absurd idea you are about to read.
I was watching when I was on the treadmill a few days back and it was the final round where they give you RL Stine and you pick some more letters. The lady couldn’t get the puzzle and Sajak shows her the prize she missed $25,000. I thought to myself, “who cares what prize she missed?” I think the prize may be eliminated as each day of the week goes on, but it would make for a way better show if they created a prize that you missed in a humorous fashion.
Tell me this isn’t funnier?
How do you keep a show that has been running for 34 years fresh? You do this.
A non-drinking weekend have allowed me to spend extra time thinking, instead of drinking. I was able to:
Devise a kick ass bowling payoff and playoff structure (a sponsorship perhaps) that will admittedly be lost on the people of the league. It’s difficult to care the most and impress the least.
I ran for 64 minutes straight which is nearing me closer to Broad St shape. Going from 40 minute to 60 minute shape is not ideal in a single run, but what the hell. I survived it and no injuries are apparent.
I came up with a new structure to the website moving forward. I’m going to inquire to see if my guy in Romania can build a new, professional looking, site and then bring in some more people to create posts and info. Is it one of those projects that will never get off the ground? Or one that starts to fly and inevitably flies into a mountain? Most likely. Either way, I’m looking forward to a change.
My betting has hit a wall of ill timed bets. The Action Network makes “suggestions”, but these are not necessarily recommended plays. What gets even worse is that sometimes they’ll have 3 people pick a game and they side differently. I’m not getting discouraged though because I don’t feel like I’m playing above my head or losing money that I can’t afford to lose. Gambling doesn’t work like investing. You don’t look for a 3% return a year. You may lose 10x until an investment returns 50x like DraftKings. Or you can lose 10 in a row before you win 20 in a row. I’m stating a case here lost in a whirlwind of misconception, but if your life can afford it, why not.
It’s 1:59 am and I decided to write a post just because. First a little about tonight to set the stage for the post.
I needed a strike in the 10th to seal a sweep and I left a pin. That pin was the 10 pin. I whiffed it left. I was 1 for 4 on the night and need a new strategy. The team finished 3-1 which was fine, but not that it all could be. It was a 580 series.
I went 1-2 on picks today losing the PSU-Utah under, the D-Backs – Rockies under, and winning the Spurs -1. It was a – $35 dollar and life moves on until tomorrow.
What I wanted to address was the blogs coming together after the aftermath of what I went through. I still don’t know where the information for these sites lie. Some on StableHost and some on Hostmonster. My guy, from Romania, has me confused. I have a hard time believing he’d do any act with malcontent, so I do trust him. I just don’t understand what happened.
With Sam being put on his own again, and his lack of posts, it would make sense to create a new URL to combine our thoughts. Our readers will continue to decrease as we age. We have to combine readers and then search for new readers among the group we establish. It only makes sense.
I can contribute with bets from the networks I belong in which should be valuable considering I pay for it. Sam can up his post with what middle 20’s people can relate to. There is a lot we could cover that as individuals, we don’t. We have to up our game. The effort will be put into the new URL with hopes of growing it.
I have a tremendous post on Silicon Valley and Rick and Morty coming up. Hopefully it can make it’s debut on the new site.
I’m seeing a lot of Philly gear on fans who I have to question if they are new fans or actual fans. Eagles hats. Sixers shirts. Phillies jerseys. Flyer whatever hockey fans wear.
There’s nothing wrong with wearing the apparel of your city. It’s a bit bandwagon to start wearing it now that the Birds won the Superbowl and the Sixers are crushing lower class teams on a run to the playoffs. Here are a few simple questions that you have to be able to answer if you want to wear a Philadelphia sports team’s gear.
How many games are in a season?
If the answer isn’t 16, 82, or 162, you shouldn’t be wearing sports attire of that sport. I honestly don’t know hockey, I’d guess 80 without looking it up).
Can you name the best player on the team?
If you can’t name Carson, Jojo, Ben, or guess Mike Schmidt or Chase Utley – no dice.
Do you know where the stadium is?
Acceptable answer is South Philly, near the Xfinity center, right off the subway on Broad.
That’s it. If you know that much, support the team as much as you want. If you don’t, you’re a fair weather fan who shouldn’t participate. I’m not saying you can’t go to a game, I’m saying you’re a huge phony who should re-evaluate their life because if you can convince yourself that you are a Philly fan, I’m sure you have WAY bigger life issues that go deeper than that as a human being.
I’ll be the first to say that I haven’t supported these teams to the degree I know others have. The difference is that I don’t fake it. If you asked me if I was an Eagles fan or a football fan this season, I’d 100% say football. I cared more about my DK lineups and fantasy than the Eagles. I didn’t think the Eagles had a chance with Foles as the QB. This didn’t mean I root against the Birds, it means that I don’t cry myself to sleep if they lose. I can still enjoy rooting and supporting them when the time is right. I’m a fan. I know the game. I know when to cheer. I can make educated opinions on what I’m viewing. I’m a sports fan.
People in the city now are riding the wave of success which has been long overdue. Philadelphia has always been a class city that didn’t get the respect it deserved because the sports teams didn’t get it done. We are seeing an age where Philly is delivering and it’s awesome. The die hard’s will always be around. The next level of fans are the people we need to worry about to maintain the authenticity that Philly is.