SUCCESS! I couldn’t have scripted week 1 any better.

Fantasy

Bum.

Wild Turkeys wins if Carlos Hyde goes for less than 24.82. 90%

Big Johnsons win if Matt Jones and the Rams D outscore me by 18.68. Oh yeah, I have Jordan Reed and Chris Bowell going as well. 99%.

Jameis Has Crabs wins if Matt Jones outscores Jordan Reed by 23.7. 99%

Bets

Well done kid.

I had stated prior that I had the Bucs and the Jags, both of whom covered. What you didn’t know is that I placed a wager on the Patriots +9 which obviously won. Congrats to Rob Kelley on a nice ML parlay hit.

For my own personal record, each unit is $10. I won 5 on the Broncos on Thursday, lost 2 on Syracuse Friday, 3 on Pitt and 1 on a parlay on Saturday. Today I won 5 on the Bucs, 4 on the Jags, and 6 on the Pats. This is a +14 unit tally so far with a combined record of 4-0 on NFL and 0-3 on College. Unfortunately there is this thing called juice and my account, which started at $100, is now at $217 which is +11.7 units.

I have 4 units on the Redskins +3 (-120) tomorrow. If it hits, I’ll take the Rams for some more units. If not, I’ll wait until Thursday.

Draftkings

AeJones, why are you in a 3 man $20 league and how did I beat you?

Easily the most I could write about but I’ll keep it simple. I entered $83 dollars in 6 total tournaments and cashed out $84 for a net profit of $1. My high lineup score was 151.72 and my low was 99.62. I won a 3 man, $20, with the 151 score and cashed in the big tourney which had 113,000 people and I got 30,000. I lost in a 3 man and 10 man $10 leagues where the top scores were 162 & 207 respectively. I also got shit on in a $20 3 man where a top score was 165.74. Not an easy buck.

All that being said, AP being a complete bust taught a lesson not to pick players from low under totals. The idea of targeting the highest scoring games and stacking the players is where the strategy is. I got beat down by a Brees, Snead, and Cooks stack. Lesson learned.  Also shying away from the value of Spencer Ware will not happen again. Paying down for a QB in Wentz was pretty smart for the future.

Eliminator and Pick Em

Major sweat in the Seattle game for the elminator pick but they pulled it off. Probably will go after a more contrarian pick next week.

I’m tied with Adam in the Pig Skin Pick em, ATS, for the first place total of the week snagging 10 of 14 games. I’ll add that Adam was sending some chirping texts before the Cardinals game and basically dug his own grave. I’m not trying to rub it in but when you chirp and lose, it’s way worse than never chirping at all. Evan will probably beat you too in the Dynasty for the karma to be delivered in its fullest.

I also have 10 games right in the Softerware pick’em but the leader has 12 which will be out of reach.

John Bonham’s playing Moby Dick for real!

Note to self, combining Step Brothers and Football is a recipe for success.

Fantasy Football

I’m in 3 leagues this year. Only 3 you ask? Yes, one of the leagues went defunct because the commissioner had a child and the members weren’t fully committed. If the league is going to go soft, it’s better to not have it anyhow but I’ve learned people are irrational when it comes to running leagues. How hard is it to draft and  set a line up every week? It’s only time consuming if you want to make it time consuming. This is like when Justin ends the baseball league 4 weeks early because he doesn’t want to intermingle with football.

All that being said I’m doing Evan’s league, “The Dynasty”, where I’ve had previous success, Steve’s League, “Philadelphia Soul Defending Champs”, where I’ve been the bridesmaid but never the bride, and Baker’s ,”We’re Grown Men Playing for $30 dollars and Everyone Cares More Than They Should League”. Without further ado let’s peep the squads.

Wild Turkeys – Eli will have a strong passing attack all year to O’dell. Alshon will be a target monster with no one else on the team to throw to. Tate is extremely underrated with 90+ catches the last two years WITH Calvin on the team. Johnson and McCoy are probably the strongest running duo in the league with probably the strongest backups in the league with Ryan Mathews and Rashad Jennings. Willie Snead has break out potential and Steve Smith is a long shot to produce.

Big Johnsons – I’ll write more on Jameis in a minute. Johnson and Freeman will be top RB’s this year. Landry is under appreciated and I have hopes for Maclin but my expectations are curbed. Jordan Reed is the steal of the draft going in the 3rd round. Jennings will be a 3 down workhorse. This bench is fairly weak with John Brown having concussions, Corey Coleman who may be useless by week 4, Riddick has a lot of PPR potential, and I like Snead to produce. High expectations.

Jameis Has Crabs – Jameis info below. Freeman and McCoy were taken with 12 and 13 so I can’t complain. Crabtree and Shepard are not my favorite WR’s to start but I have to make due. Reed will be big and Forte is going to have a stronger year than people think. The Matthews pick was made before Wentz was named the starter which I regret. I have high hopes for Foster but need to wait a few weeks to re-evaluate. Sharpe and Coleman are wait and see and TyGod will be a good backup.

DraftKings

The more research you do, the harder it is to make a lineup. At some point it feels like everyone is recommended. This week I’ll be entering the $3 Millionaire, the $20 Sunday Special, and 2 $20 3 man’s, and a $10 5 man. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not a profitable DK player. I enjoy the action though and this is hardly a major investment. If I can get the ball rolling a little bit with some early wins, I’ll up the ante.

*These can and probably will change as Sunday approaches. News always comes out.

The obvious choice in RB this week is Spencer Ware who I believe will be owned all over the place. I’d imagine you’d have to fade him in big tourney’s to make a splash. Marvin Jones will be a popular pick as Luck and Stafford are going to be slinging it with Vontae Davis out and the Colts D being laughable early on. James White is sneaky cheap but also has a low floor if the Patriots go to some wild game plan with Garrapolo. Some longshot picks are Sterling Shepard (no one has seen him play and Odell draws the attention), Stefon Diggs (Hill has to throw the ball to someone), and Jarvis Landry (everyone is scared to go up against Seattle but remember Markus Wheaton torched them for  9-201).

Bets

After starting 1-0 with a $50 win on the Broncos, I lost $20 last night on a blind stab at Syracuse. Watching Syracuse was one of the worst tackling displays I’ve ever seen and once again proves I should stay away from college at all costs. On to the NFL where I spend far more time.

Throwing them all off.

Bucs +3 – Read more on Jameis below. Currently -125 which is not that appealing but I’ve been reading that Matt Ryan has been regressing from what I believe is already a regressed state. Devontae and Julio are obviously strong weapons but the Falcons aren’t a great football team. They finished last season losing 6 of their last 8 games and lost to the Bucs twice last year both in close games. I wouldn’t say this is a mortal lock but I think the Bucs win the game outright and the points are just a topping. I’ll probably include this in a teaser.

Blake stop putting up with your shit and is finally ready to play some football.

Jags +6 – What do we look for when making selections? Home dogs. Home dogs are bad picks when the other team is far superior and blow them out of the building. This will not be the case in this game. The Packers won their first 6 games last season before losing to both Super Bowl teams in back to back weeks. They closed the season getting blown out by the Cardinals and Vikings in the regular season and then losing to the Cardinals again in the post season. They are good team but not a great team. With Jordy back and Lacy supposedly revived, they have more weapons but I expect some rust. The Jags are up and coming but should be able to move the ball with Allen Robinson and a decent RB duo of Yeldon and Ivory. Once again, I’d feel better teasing this but I think a close game will occur.

Skins +3 – I saw analysts picking the Steelers to win the Super Bowl which surprises me because I don’t think their defense is top notch. Their offense obviously is but with Bryant out for the year and LeVeon suspended, I think it’ll be a few weeks before they are firing on all cylinders. Cousins is a monster at home after a 6-2 record last year and put up 206 total points during those games while throwing 16 TD’s and adding 4 rushing TD’s. Reed with have a monster game and DeSean will be catching deep balls all over the place.

Eliminator – Take Seattle and don’t over think it. It’s the largest point spread, Seattle is home, Miami has Ryan Tannehill.

Breakout Player of the Year

Famous Jameis. Perhaps this is too late of a pick considering he threw for over 4,000 yards last year, ran for another 214, and had a 22-15 TD to INT ratio which is solid but not otherworldly.  To the right you can see he had exactly 0 single digit games. His floor was 13.4 against a stout Houston D and ceiling was 30.8 against our shitty Eagles. Mike Evans is a WR serious threat, Doug Martin got back to his 2013 ways and Charles Sims is a PPR machine. Plus Jameis isn’t scared of rifling the ball downfield. Like Odell Beckham before, Jameis is my new prediction of breakout start as he will finish the year as a top 5 QB. Futures Justin would be proud.