Please play great this week. Please play great this week. Please play great this week.
It’s 8:25am on a Saturday and my mind is working at 100% which is unusual. Last week wasn’t my finest but I expect better results. Onward.
Since the last post, I was up 23 units (7-3) on NFL and 0 sum on college (2-3). In the meantime I won a 2 unit Eagles ML and lost a 4 unit bet on the Texans. I’m now 8-4, +21 units (+15.7 with the juice). Maybe a small college play for the action but nothing worth talking about.
Dolphins -10, 4 units – This game will make or break me for this week and I’m fully behind the intuition. Cody Kessler is the Browns QB. The Dolphins D-Line is huge with Mario Williams and Ndamukong Suh. In each of the first two weeks, the Dolphins have injured the opposing quarterback, with Suh stepping on Russell Wilson’s ankle to cause a sprain and linebacker Kiko Alonso driving New England’s Jimmy Garropolo to the turf and knocking him out of Thursday night’s game with a shoulder injury. Plus this “most NFL draft gurus graded Kessler as an undrafted free agent and were shocked when the Browns selected him 93rd overall.” I’ll be riding Tannehill to the grave in DFS and in season long leagues. Liking Landry and Parker as well. Here comes a blow out.
Jaguars +1, 4 units – I’m going to come flat out and say I jumped the gun on this. Everyone knows that the lines are the most incorrect when they first come out and that’s where the easiest money is to be made. I saw a home dog in the Jags and took it, why? On Sunday I was watching the direct TV package, and not RedZone, and watched the entire Ravens game. They were down 20-0 before McCown got hurt. They looked lost and I believe the Jags are ready to be found. They played the Pack tough at home (who appears to suck worse than expected) and got their pooters packed by the Chargers away. My only minor concern is I didn’t read the match-ups by Evan Silva before making this bet and he’s the other way which obviously worries me. He was right about the Pats game and I’ll make it my mission to not bet a game without reading his write up.
Panthers -7, 4 units – People may forget that the Panthers started the season last year 14-0 before succumbing to the Atlanta Falcons. This year. they are leading the league in points, 3rd in total yards, and have the best rushing attack in the NFL while sporting a 1-1 record. Their loss is to the Broncos who not only won the Superbowl last year but have a defense that is incredible lead by Von Miller. The Panthers are home amidst the Charlotte riots which should inspire strong play. They play against a Vikings team coming off a strong performance against the Pack at home. The Vikings recently lost All Day until November and have found a gem in Stefon Diggs. Fortunately for me, once you stop Diggs, you stop the entire offense. Even though the Vikings have a strong D, this is a Panthers mop up game at home. Also don’t expect much from Greg Olsen because BML in Charlotte.
5 Team Teaser – Redskins +10, Lions +13.5, Dolphins -4, Broncos +9, Jets +9. 2 units – I haven’t released a teaser yet but I liked a lot of the games on the card this week. Adding points to already big numbers is usually how I like to play my teasers. You go for games that hopefully won’t be blowouts. Quick thoughts on each pick. The OBJ-Norman rivalry will obviously be awesome and Kirk Cousins has been sucking but even though I don’t expect the Skins to win away, it’ll be close. The Packers are seemingly overrated and although they will play better home, the Lions should hang in there. Read above on the Dolphins. The Bronco’s D is too tough to be laying 9 to. The Jets are sort of a weird team but they have a lot of weapons and 9 will be too many.
I’m -$42 on the season which is hardly bad, but certainly not good. I deposited $100 to start the season so I’m more cash strapped this week as I only enter 4 tournaments before, hopefully, not another re-deposit. I am well aware this isn’t positive EV but I enjoy the Sundays so much more that for $20 a week, I’m not worried about it.
I’m sure you can consider it point chasing but guys like Diggs, Travis Benjamin, and DeVantae Paker are finding my lineups due to price. I’m a big fan of Amari Cooper this week and DeAngelo, AB, and DJ are no brainers. Tajae Sharpe as a #1 WR at that price is also a guy I’m playing. With regards to other RB’s, Sims, Riddick, Gordon, should all be bell cows. I also might sprinkle some Christine Michael for some exposure. Trey Burton being a minimum is also in play if Zach Ertz doesn’t suit up. Bucs and Dolphins D are the way to go this week.
Wild Turkeys – Sitting at 1-1 and already behind 0-22.5, I’m not playing from a great spot. Add to that I have to play against Amari Cooper and AB, both of whom I’ll be using in DFS, this isn’t looking great. I’m hoping for a bounce back from Eli and Hoyer to be able to get Jeffery the ball. McCoy is predicted to have a rough go but there’s not much I can do. I also have the problem with Olsen because BML. David Johnson will have to be my savior. I’m also counting on the Dolphins for some nice points.
Big Johnson’s – Also 1-1, I’ll be rolling the dice with a Tannehill-Landry stack. David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, and Theo Riddick are strong RB starts. Snead and Jordan Reed round out a nice team. I’ll decide between Maclin and Riddick at game time. Same Miami D play. I got a boost from my opponent playing Will Fuller and once again have to fade AB.
Jameis Has Crabs – A bozo dropped Eli in this league so I scooped him. Tough choice between him and Tannehill this week. RB’s in McCoy, Freeman, and Forte aren’t wonderful but easy choices. Jordan Matthews and Crabtree are serviceable and hopefully Reed goes off. I can consider Tajae or Sterling for that Crabtree spot as well. I’m playing a good team with Cam, DeMarco, Riddick, Doug Baldwin, and of course, AB. How the fuck does that happen?
I HATE HATE HATE putting all my eggs in one basket on this Dolphins game but I’ll eat my words hard if the Browns can beat the Dolphins at home. The Saints are my other pick but it’s hard for me to justify liking that one over the Fins.
Nice sweat in the golf as well. 306 out of 29,411.