I am well aware predicting sporting outcomes is, well, unpredictable. However, people are getting paid to do so and are charging peons like myself for this information. Let’s take a look and start putting some of the info to results. I’m using my Yahoo points which are .5pts ppr for rankings. These are all article suggestions from ProFootballFocus which is a paid subscription.
Fantasy Players to Avoid in Week 3 – Tyler Loechner
Tyler Loechner
Kirk Cousins – QB9, 19.3 pts
LeSean McCoy – RB3, 25.1 pts
Jeremy Langford – RB48, 6.1 pts
O’Dell Beckham – WR17 – 15.6 pts
AJ Green – WR25 – 11.7 pts
Antonio Gates – DNP
Julius Thomas – TE36- 2.3 pts
I’d give positive credit to any guy outside of the top 20 like Langford, Thomas and Green (very good pick). Cousins and McCoy were way off and OBJ is ranked slightly above even considering he is so expensive.
Grade: B-
Top Contrarian Plays – Scott Barrett
Aaron Rodgers – QB3, 26.4 pts
Dak Prescott – QB6, 23.5 pts
Christine Michael – RB6, 24.1 pts
Chris Thompson – RB65, 2.8 pts
Jeremy Maclin – WR59, 5.5 pts
Quincy Enunwa – WR57, 5.7 pts
Travis Kelce – TE4, 17.9 pts
Tyler Kroft – 0 pts
Great selections in Rodgers, Prescott, Michael, and Kelce. Complete whiffs on the others. I understand they are contrarian, and supposed to be low owned which throws a wrinkle, but half of these selections are not getting 2x the cost of the player which is a not good. 4 top notch picks and 4 complete whiffs.
Grade: B+
Top Streaming Options – Michael Tagliere
Ryan Tannehill – QB10, 18.96 pts
Dak Prescott – QB6, 25.52 pts
Jay Ajayi – RB28, 8.8 pts
Cameron Artis Payne – RB40, 6.3 pts
Philip Dorsett – WR72, 4.2 pts
Markus Wheaton – WR111, .7 pts
Clive Walford – TE23, 2.6 pts
Not bad QB selections with guys off the waiver wire but pretty universal selections. Everyone else was not worth playing this week in a pinch. Obviously expectations need to be tempered but these are swings and misses
Grade: C-
Top DFS Bargains – Brandon Marianne Lee
Marcus Mariotta – QB29, 4.7 pts
Dak Prescott – QB6, 25.5 pts
Jay Ajayi – RB28, 8.8 pts
Theo Riddick – RB30, 8.3 pts
Charles Sims – RB11, 21.4 pts
Stefon Diggs – WR54, 6 pts
Quincy Enunwa – WR57, 5.7 pts
Mike Wallace – WR60, 5.4 pts
Dennis Pitta – TE18, 7.2 pts
Trey Burton – TE28, 2.9 pts
Bargains are players who are not highly priced in DFS. If an average bargain salary is 5k, you’d expect 10 points from the player and only 2 of the recommendations did that (Riddick maybe have been close). Prescott and Sims were excellent selections but everyone else would be below expectation.
Grade: D+
The Best Plays of Week 3 – Patrick Thorman
Russell Wilson – QB14, 14,0 pts
Ryan Tannehill – QB10, 18.9 pts
Ezekiel Elliot – RB14, 17 pts
CJ Anderson – RB49, 4.6 pts
Mark Ingram – RB12, 20.7 pts
Frank Gore – RB16, 14.8 pts
Jordy Nelson – WR6, 25.1 pts
Sterling Shepard – WR15, 15.8 pts
Stefon Diggs – WR54, 6 pts
Devonte Parker – WR21, 12.6 pts
Jordan Reed – TE16, 7.6 pts
Trey Burton – TE28, 2.9 pts
You are calling the column the top plays of Week 3. This means you can choose from the entire roster of players and he came up with 1 player in the top 10 after selecting 12 players. He managed 7 in the top 20. 4 outside of that. It’s not atrocious but this doesn’t pay the bills.
Grade: C
Optimal DFS Lineup: Trust Dennis Pitta in DK – Tyler Loechner
Andrew Luck – QB17, 13.24 pts
Melvin Gordon – RB15. 15.8 pts
Theo Riddick – RB30, 8.3 pts
Antonio Brown – WR10, 20 pts
Amari Cooper -WR43, 8.2 pts
Tajae Sharpe – WR52, 6.3 pts
Dennis Pitta – TE18, 7.2 pts
Cole Beasley – WR26, 10.8 pts
Miami Defense – D19, 7 pts
This line up would have scored 96.84 points in a .5 PPR. A full point may be 20 or so higher. 120 is the opposite of optimal. I put together 3 lineups that scored over 130 and cashed 0 times. AB is the only good pick of the entire bunch and he’s the most expensive player there is in the league.
Grade: D-
Week 3 Start Sit Advice – Dan Schneier
Best Matchups
Drew Brees – QB4, 25.9 pts
Melvin Gordon – RB15, 15.8 pts
T.Y Hilton – WR4, 27.4 pts
Start Them
Eli Manning – QB15, 14 pts
Eddie Lacy – RB22, 11 pts
Devante Parker – WR21, 12.6 pts
Sit Them
Kirk Cousins – QB9, 19.34 pts
Justin Forsett – RB42, 6.3 pts
DeSean Jackson – WR12, 18.1 pts
An article written 6 days before the games were actually played produced the best information. He was a bit off with the Cousins to DeSean combo but all else was at least serviceable. Sure you’d want a little more from Eli and Lacy in that spot but at least they weren’t doughnuts. Brees, Gordon, and T.Y would pay the bills.
Grade: B
Evan Silva Quotes
I really like Evan Silva’s matchups because he dissects so much information, in such a short time, on a week to week basis, that I give him a TON of credit for making the predictions as well as he does. Considering I’m using him for a lot of my picks in the PigSkin Pick Em and am leading after 3 weeks, I’m hardly complaining but this shows that even Evan misses the mark.
“As a road-dog running back in a seemingly sub-par matchup, (DeMarco) Murray is mid-range to low-end RB2 in Nashville and all but off the board in DFS.” RB7
“(Dwayne) Allen is my favorite DFS tight end play of the week” TE19
“(Amari) Cooper showed incredible open-field speed on the play and looks ready to explode. He is probably my favorite DFS play in Week 3.” WR43
“Demaryius is a low-upside WR2/3 at Cincinnati. Sanders is a WR3” WR13 and WR2
“The Lions are moving top corner Darius Slay around the formation this year, which suggests he will spend much of this game chasing Nelson. Although Nelson has hit pay dirt in back-to-back games, he has struggled to separate coming off an ACL tear at age 31. He is a mid-range to low-end WR2 until proven otherwise.” WR6
“Gurley can only be viewed as a low-floor RB2”. RB13
Final Thoughts
Perhaps my expectations are a bit high but it almost feels like the site is either holding their good info or they are aren’t that good. I’m well aware that you couldn’t have put Christine Michael in any of these articles until Sunday morning. Vereen wasn’t a play until then as well. I suppose I feel like the intel should be better. 3 weeks have gone by and there’s nothing here where I’ve said to myself, “I can’t get this info from anywhere else”. Brad Evans from Yahoo! gives out free advice all the time and I can’t imagine he’d be any worse than these guys. Matthew Berry the same way. I’ll keep week 4 posted as another week passes by.
I want to point out that I only found one evidence of anyone even recommending Marvin Jones on the entire site and it was found in a hard to read optimal lineup by Brandon Marianne Lee. I used DK so she would have had 154.4 plus a flex spot instead of the kicker which is solid and that’s assuming the salaries work which I have no clue.
Great read – I’ve always been curious to go back and compare against rankings. Nobody does it, it’s always on to the next week. In related news, I’m looking for a lightning strike WR3 this week… any recommendations?
They keep making their (not that accurate) predictions because sheeple like you two keep paying them. If you say their the reason that you’re winning most of your leagues, then you can’t complain. If you say their a waste of money, then why do you keep paying them? Would your fantasy results be that much different (+ or -) if you stopped subscribing to these things?
I’m pretty sure I’m the only one who subscribes fwiw.
For $130 you get subscription for the entire year. This includes the draft guide. Also it helps to think of it as, “I’m investing 100 dollars a week in DFS, is that worth a cost of $8.12 a week plus other tidbits?” If it’s good, I’d say yes. You also get perks in season long leagues like good waiver wire pick ups and streaming options. In my 3 leagues I’ve scored the 4th, 2nd, and 1st most to this point which is hardly poor.
If you say they’re a waste of money, then why do you keep paying them? It’s only a waste of money until it isn’t. If I hit one week for a 4 figure cash, I’m not making this post.
Would your fantasy results be that much different (+ or -) if you stopped subscribing to these things? In DFS, in safe to say that there are thousands of people who have the same access to the information as you. I feel like it’s the same idea as poker, “it’s not necessarily how could you are, but how bad the people you play against are.” In season long leagues, I’d be lying if I didn’t think I had an edge over every league I’m in because of it.