I know this topic gets old but at least appreciate my Carlos Ruiz juice box in paint. Just to continue this though let’s look at numbers because they don’t lie. Ruiz came to Philly at the age of 27 but lets see how his avg fared in the minors from the beginning.
Age Avg Lev
21 .277 Rk
22 .261 A
23 .213 A+
24 .278 AA
25 .284 AA
26 .300 AAA
27 .307 AAA
Chooch steadily improved throughout the minors. At 28, rookie year with the Phillies in 2007, he batted .259 in 429 plate appearances and .219 the year after in 373 PA. At 30, he put up a .255 avg with 379 PA. Now the fun begins in 2010. At the mature age of 31, Chooch shot up to a .302 AVG in 433 PA and a still nice .283 the following year. Then an unbelievable .325 last year with still a pretty high sample of plate appearances (421). Where did these numbers come from? A guy who was painstakingly working his way through the minors in his 20’s, magically started improving in his 30’s. Not just improving but being one of the best hitters in the league. This doesn’t happen naturally! Could you argue that he is working harder now than he did in his 20’s? I just don’t buy it because I bet he worked his ass off to even get to the majors. Then he just starts improving and now he’s tested positive for some type of drug TWICE! Adderall isn’t the answer for why he has improved. There is some underlying enhancement that is being covered up. Most people don’t just excel when they hit their 30’s, it’s usually the other way around with a decline. Baseball is different than basketball and football in terms of the stress on the body, I’d agree, but I don’t agree that years of being a <.260 hitters all of a sudden becomes .325 hitter. Keep sipping that juice box Chooch. It's not longer Juicin, It' Choochin.
You and I have had this conversation before and you make very good points. Maybe if you started taking the ‘juice’ you could break that 17:00 5K time 🙂
In defense of Chooch…
2010 (31 yo) – .302 avg / .400 obp / .847 ops
2011 (32 yo) – .283 avg / .371 obp / .754 ops
2012 (33 yo) – .325 avg / .394 obp / .935 ops
Career (7 years MLB) – .275 avg / 363 opb / .781 ops
The 2012 spike is not too drastic accounting for the last 3 years. Even in 2009 when he batted .255 his OPB and OPS where within his career range (prior and after). The spike in various offensive categories may be attributed to his location in the lineup. For instance, up until 2012 Ruiz batted 7th-8th. In 2012 he reached as high as 4th in the lineup – more opportunities for RBI, etc. The difference between a player batting 4th and a player batting 8th is really the percentage of swings. A player (like Ruiz) batting 8th and protecting the pitcher is more likely to not swing – and try to walk – to turn the lineup over. Take the same player and place him in the 4th spot – and he his more likely to swing. He has better protection behind him (sees better pitches) and is more likely to be in a situation where a walk will not drive in runs.
In 2012 Ruiz registered 180 less PA than Buster Posey (who batted 4th). I imagine Ruiz would have reduced his AVG over those next 180 AB – much like McCutchen did – or Melky Cabrera would have given a whole season. It is unattainable unless you are supremely gifted. Once Miguel Cabrera stopped drinking before games – his average went up to .300+. However, Chooch has always got on base, worked long counts and hit balls hard up the middle. When you are batting 8th this translates to walks. When you are batting 4th/5th – with runners on base – and the infield not able to cover gaps (bc they are attending to base-runners) – there are more holes to hit into and less mobility for fielders to cover that space. So more hits that wouldn’t be hits for him prior. But over an additional 120 AB his avg would have likely fell – as he would encounter less pitches to hit. The 2012 sample is skewed because it wasn’t a full season.
His OBP and OPS have been fairly consistent throughout his career and catchers tend to find a greater offensive stride later for some reason. If he his taking steroids he is doing it wrong. He has always walked and always put balls in play. So where are the hits coming from? Is it a byproduct of his place in the lineup, greater acuity to hit off-speed pitches or increased bat speed through medicinal means? Atlanta (1st), Washington (4th), Miami (9th) and the NY Mets (7th) are all in the top 10 for errors committed for the NL in 2012. Perhaps there were more gaps than normal to hit through…
Look at Buster Posey’s 2012 stats – recovering from a major lower body injury. He got pushed up in the lineup – batted .336 over 530 AB – and raised his OPS over 200 points. 95 points above his full season totals in 2010. A roughly 100 point raise with 204 MORE PA is substantial – especially after a major injury and limited AB’s leading up to a season. He got more experienced (so he walked more) – but that is a tremendously quick, poignant and productive recovery for the NL MVP…
Opinions, Bud Schmidt?
Did I use the comma correctly?
The first question was specifically to Bud on the post topic. The second to anyone who knows the answer.
I like Brookes’ answer a lot. I went over to FanGraphs to check on a few stats too. Chooch’s HR/FB ratio was really high this year at 15.1%, compared to his career 7.6%. I suppose that could mean a few things…
1) He got stronger coming into this year (you know what that means)
2) He was lucky (7 of his 16 HRs were considered “just enough” HRs, which seems pretty normal to me, so I wouldn’t say he got too lucky)
3) We cant’ tell anything cause it’s only 1 year, and it’s too small of a sample size (I’m going with this one)
As for his batting average, he had a really high BABIP at .339 (projected to drop to .303 next year). Part of that can be attributed to his slightly increased line drive rate, but it wasn’t too high compared to his career average (4% higher). If you just take away his 7 “just enough” HRs, and say they don’t quite clear the fence, he’s down to a .306 BA, which at first glance, is far from .325.
In the end, I think one season can have enough flukes to skew numbers like this, along with Brookes’ explanation above about place in the line-up. Just a few hits here and there can turn .300 into .325 over the course of one season. Maybe I just want too badly to pretend he’s clean though.