Coming off a huge $30 dollar win on my Olympic Golf DraftKings team I’m primed and ready to go into earnings season.
Ezekiel Kemboi (WAS +170)
The 3000m Steeple has been removed from the Bovada betting as Vegas re-evaluates the odds after the trials went off today. Sam noted that Kemboi’s odds moved all the way to +200 last Friday and settled on +150 which I have a feeling will continue to trend downward as we get closer to the race and more eyes land on it. Kemboi made the finals after Monday’s race as well as the other big names in Conseslus, Brimin, and Jager. This is a great read on the race from Let’s Run better than any resource I can give you. They believe Kemboi will outkick Conseslus for the Gold which is what Sam predicted.I currently have $350 to win $595. THE RACE IS 10:50AM on WEDNESDAY 8/17/16. Congratulations to my future wife Emma Coburn for her Bronze medal in the 3000m Steeplechase this morning (she was one of the likes).
Marry me @emmajcoburn! #PreClassic
— Tom Stortz (@rnningfool) May 30, 2015
Novavax
The earnings were underwhelming. The stock dipped from $7.60 to below $7 bucks last Tuesday. Today NVAX has come back with a vengeance going up to exactly where it was last week at $7.60. This is a good sign. I’d recommend sticking with the stock. A quick update on my position. I bought 6 $9 OCT option contracts at $1.20 which is equivalent to a $720 investment. Today those options are worth $1.55. This is a .35 gain on a $1.20 basis which is 29% gain in about 3 weeks time. Let’s keep running up!
Fantasy Baseball
You cannot get a piece of my fantasy baseball action but I manged to make it to the finals in my $100 league. First place is $700 and 2nd is $300 (I think). Considering I know very little about baseball, this is a bit surprising but shows being active on the waiver wire, listening to others, and getting lucky can be all you need.
Brookes did my draft because I don’t know the players very well. I STILL don’t know the players except for who is on my team because I never actually watch the games. Goldschmidt was my first pick (pick# 3) and proved consistent but is 15th in total points scored among batters. Dee Gordon (missed most of the year), Gerrit Cole (underwhelming) and Matt Carpenter (solid) were the next 3 picks. 5th round grabbed Tulowitzki who was hurt for some of the season but is a good shortstop when he plays. The steal of the draft happened in the 6th round with David Ortiz (5th most points scored among batters). The remainder of the draft yielded Zimmerman, Hanley, and Kemp but no one else who remained on the team to completion.
Why I think my team is in the finals is because I have no attachment to the players who were drafted. If they players weren’t performing, I cut them and moved to a player who was. Russell Martin was horrible and I grabbed Wilson Ramos off the waiver wire who was an all-star. I added Rick Porcello (16-3), Rich Hill (9-3), Danny Duffy (9-1), and Marco Estrada (7-5, 1.04 WHIP) thoughout the year to basically become my staff. Not a single closer remained for the entire season as Rosenthal was replaced and Ziegler and Rodney were traded. I also added Adam Duvall and Jean Segura who helped out along the way.
A final thought was I got really lucky. I had the least points scored against in the entire league. I had the guy in the first round of the playoffs only score 166 points against me. In the second round I streamed 4 pitchers who all had positive results. Call it great managing but it has more to do with getting lucky. That’s why I think there is about a 0% chance I lose this week. Big thanks to Bud and Brookes who answered any questions I had as the season progressed.
Most of Fantasy BB – depending on how your league is formatted – is about building a strong spine for a team through the draft – then being adaptive. It’s usually easier to replace OF players and pitchers – as someone will always surprise, change roles or get called-up. Jeanmar Gomez (PHL) is nearly a top 5 closer with 31 saves.
I think FBB requires much more ability to adapt, forecast and make riskier decisions over the course of a season (and draft) than any of the other fantasy sports.
The other major component is how you choose to evaluate your own players – and players on Waivers.
Given the transaction cap your league has, it puts a major emphasis on the draft. If I recall, 7 of your 10 starting field players were selected in the draft.