My fantasy teams are starting to fire on all cylinders going 4-0 this week.  I’m resting in 1st place (6-2 & 5-3) in two leagues, 6th in one, and 9 of 10 in the other.  I’m primed for playoff runs in 3 of the 4 and haven’t counted out the other.  It’s important in fantasy to never give up because that’s what weak willed owners do when they feel like luck is not on their side.  These middling weeks are when the allure of fantasy has worn off and people don’t pay as much attention on the waiver wire.  Never say die.

I’m stuck $230 in Draftkings through 8 weeks.  I read that 90% of the profits made on these sites are won by 1.5% of the players.  I’m not in the 1.5%.  Considering the amount of time I spend trying to beat these sites, I’m beginning to realize it’s a pipe dream to make a profit.  Either way I still have fun putting a few entries in the Million.  Losing 40 bucks a week is still reasonable entertainment but I have a feeling that will even out further as the weeks go on and I deposit less money.

Betting made a full 180 for me.  I’ve deposited exactly $400 dollars into Bovada and just cashed out $350 and have $150 in my account which puts me up $100 on the season.  This is far more impressive than it looks considering the amount of games I’ve bet.  I was riding the Shee’s heater and two separate times I’ve sank my own ship when making a run.  The Eagles cost me $300 last week and this week I dropped 3 straight (Titans, Steelers, and Jets) for $350.  No problem.

I’m aware these posts don’t hit much of the 7 person audience but it’s the halfway point and why the heck not.  I was also going to write about how much of an asset Gronk was but turns out I have him on 3 teams and the one team in 1st doesn’t have him.  Too lazy to change it.

STINK!

People are wondering why they are losing with lousy excuses that the NFL figured out Chip’s offensive scheme and the Cowboys knew the plays as they were being called.  Guess what?  It’s not that complicated.  The Eagles offensive players just flat out aren’t that good.  Let’s get started.

Sam Bradford –  His career record is 18-32-1.  His QB rating for a season has never been higher than 52.  Now what happened to me was when I heard they got Sam Bradford initially I cringed.  When he killed in the pre-season, I had huge hope.  Now I’m back with him being a lousy QB that his record indicates.

If looks could kill, demarco murray would be in jail. Poor Bradford @JermichaelF88: ???? pic.twitter.com/Gn6iM9Fpea“

— Clarence Hill (@clarencehilljr) September 22, 2015

RB’s – DeMarco has a hurt hammy which is just another blow.  He hasn’t looked great with 11 yards on 21 carries which is a far cry from an 1,800 yard season.  Sproles looks spry and Matthews is a ghost.  However, I think the bigger problem is…

OL – Peters, Johnson, and the undersized Kelce are the foundation. Allen Babre and Andrwho Gardner stink. Losing Mathis and Herremans is being felt right now.

WR – Easily the worst part of the Eagles offense. Matthews is a 2 not a 1. Agholor has played 2 total games in his career. Riley Cooper is not an NFL player. These players drop passes and don’t get open.

Defense – After a rocky 1st half against the Falcons, they came to play in the 2nd half keeping the game tight. In the 2nd game, they held Dallas to 6 points before giving up the Terrence Williams TD after being on the field the whole game and Byron Maxwell being “exhausted”.  Kiko is out again (shocker) and Maxwell is one of the worst coverage men in the game currently. Good luck.

These first 2 weeks have been rough.  Where to even begin.  Well, lets start with where I was last year.

Current Betting Log NFL: 8-14-1 $-187 College: 8-5 $+47 Fanduel: $-150

— Tom Stortz (@rnningfool) September 26, 2014

Good to know I’m equally bad this year. I didn’t keep track of my win totals betting but I know that I’m down exactly $200 Bovada dollars on NFL and College. My college record is 1-5 which a monkey could pick better and my NFL is not much better.

I didn’t deposit any cash into Fanduel so I was playing with last year’s money but that’s down to $13 from $50. The only deposit I made into DraftKings since I won $100 bucks on some golf tournament is $100 and my balance is $45 which means I’m down around $150. Even worse is if you look back at that one post I put my lineups in, the team that was my best didn’t even get entered in a tournament which I can’t explain.

Fantasy is not going great as I’m 2-8 this year losing one game by .6 and another by .3. My teams are scoring points but I’m hitting fire in my matchups.

Throw in a week of accurately picking 3! games in a league where all you have to do is pick the team that wins and my hands are being thrown up in the air like WTF.

Obviously football is not an exact science. The idea of predicting events to happen before they do is not as easy as it sounds. Despite every huge winner on the DraftKings commercials, real life isn’t so easy. This season is obviously testing my resolve. On to week 3.

You mean I took Gronk in 3 out of 4 drafts with the 4th, the 9th, and the 10th pick?  Was that smart?  Did he score 3 TD’s last night?

What about that draft where I took Tom Brady in the 7th round when it wasn’t clear how many games he was going to be suspended.  Was that a good play?  Do you think my team will be in good shape with Gronk and Brady?

Fantasy football and DFS is not about identifying good players.  Any idiot can tell you Eddie Lacy is going to have a good game.  It’s identifying the players who are head and shoulders better than the rest of the league.   Guys like Gronk, ODB, and LeVeon Bell come to mind.  Amari Cooper is going to be the next one.  You don’t want these guys on your team.  You NEED them.

I’m not putting my own money behind these predictions and neither should you. I thought it would be fun to give a quick blurb and guess whether the O/U will hit and then see how well I did once the season ends. It also shows who are the worst teams in the league and who you should be looking to start your fantasy players against.

Sea – 11 Wins – Over – Their defense is superior to every team in the league.
GB – 11 Wins – Under – The loss of Jordy is substantial.
NE – 10.5 – Over – Reggie Wayne saying the team practices too hard is an indicator of the environment.
Ind – 10.5 – Over – Gore, TY, and Andre Johnson should be enough fire power to maintain.
Den – 10.5 – Under – I’m not sold on CJ Anderson and Peyton is another year older.
Phi – 9.5 – Over – If Bradford and the offense click like expected, this is easy money.
Dal – 9.5 – Under – A strong O-Line won’t help shitty RB’s.
Bal – 9.5 – Under – Seemingly find ways to win with players that I think are bad. Not this year.
NO – 9.0 – Under – Spiller and Ingram are not nearly as dynamic as people think.
Mia – 9.0 – Over – Tannehill is improving and Landry will help at the WR spot. Lamar Miller could shine.
SD – 8.5 – Under – Keenan Allen who is only one player and relying on Melvin Gordon is a crap shoot.
Pit – 8.5 – Over – The offense seems so prolific that this bet should be simple but it won’t be.
NYG – 8.5 – Over – Lot of weapons on offense. I wouldn’t sleep on this team.
KC – 8.5 – Over – Jamaal is a beast and Maclin will help Alex Smith.
Hou – 8.5 – Under – Weak at the QB position. Watts, Wilfork, and Clowney can’t save this team.
Det – 8.5 – Under – Aging stars and unproven rookies lead to disappointment.
Cin – 8.5 – Over – Hill will power this team to victories
Car – 8.5 – Under – No receivers will be their down fall.
Buf – 8.5 – Under – Tyrod Taylor is not an NFL QB.
Atl – 8.5 – Under – Consistently underachieves.
Ari – 8.5 – Over – Palmer and John Brown will spread the offense for Andre Ellington who I think sucks but the defense will prevail in close games
STL – 8.0 – Under – No idea how they will win 8 games with no WR’s and a running game with ???
NYJ – 7.5 – Over – Fitzpatrick and Geno will prove better than expected and Chris Ivory will break out.
Min – 7.5 – Over – Liking this offense with Teddy, AP, Charles Johnson, and Mike Wallace.
Chi – 7.0 – Under – No more B Marsh, an aging forte, and hurtish Alshon is trouble.
Was – 6.5 – Under – Team is in complete disarray with Kirk Cousins who is not nearly as good as people think.
SF – 6.5 – Under – Problems galore with Kapernick regressing and Hyde being average and unproven.
Cle – 6.5 – Under – Moneyman and McCown are not good.
TB – 6.0 – Over – Jameis will improve this team as Doug Martin finds his 2012 form.
OAK – 6.0 – Over – Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray will break out.
Ten – 5.5 – Over – I like Mariota’s chances to improve this team.
Jac – 5.5 – Over – Bortles will improve with A. Robinson and Hearns helping his cause.

16 overs, 16 unders. I wish I knew a little more about the defenses of teams because that factors in tremendously but I don’t have the research or time available.