I’m currently sitting at exactly even after the first round of the playoffs after a 50 dollar loss on the under of the Alabama – Clemson game. To make matters worse, I was sitting in first place in the College Bowl Mania Pick Em, had the last game for the most points, knew the two people behind me were going to take Clemson, and I failed to make the switch and lost 150 because of it. Bad management.
Falcons / Seahawks
Already kicking myself for waiting too long to jump on this line. When I first looked I saw the Falcons were giving 4. This struck me as a fairly large number but if you’ve read my previous posts, you’d know that I believe the Falcons are a Super Bowl contender this year. The line has since moved to 6 and I don’t see this as an obvious choice. Everyone knows the Seahawks are better at home and only 3-4-1 this year on the road. In the meeting this year at Seattle, they edged the Falcons 26-24 with Matty Ice throwing 3 TD’s to 0 INT’s. Julio had a big game as the Seahawks stopped the run completely. I expect more of the same from the Falcons in this meeting at the Georgia Dome. SOOOOO, where does that leave me?
I think the Falcons win the game and the Seahawks cover. 6 points is too many points to lay to the dangerous Seahawks. I know their defense is banged up but they have emerging offensive talents with Rawls, Baldwin, and the came out of left field Paul Richardson. I think their D is still solid enough but I could certainly be wrong if they get beaten early like the Steelers did to the Dolphins. Read that last line again. Do you really think this will happen to the Seahawks? I do not.
Patriots / Texans
- Get the likes ready Rob.
- There have only been 3 games in the past 30 years that have had a higher point spread than 16.
- The Patriots were 13-3 this year ATS.
- The Texans were 2-6 on the road this year.
- The Patriots have not given up a rushing TD since week 8.
- If you bet the Belichick Patriots from the moment he was hired, you’d be 170-125-8 against the spread (about 57.6 percent)
- “The historic 16-point opener was quickly bet down (by professionals),” Scott Cooley, BookMaker’s odds consultant, told SportsLine.com. “The public has had no qualms laying the chalk with New England.”
- I read one tweet a few days ago that gave the statistics on how the Patriots fared against double digit spreads and can’t find it. I remember it was favorable but I know that means little.
Let’s get one thing straight, there is nothing worse than betting on a huge dog, rooting for them, and watching them get punished. This happened in week 3 when the Pats sent out rookie Jacoby Brissett to manage the game against the “rising star” Brock Osweiler. I bet the Texans this game for the exact reasoning that a rookie QB has to suck and Brock will be better than when he was on Denver. What happened was that it didn’t matter if they sent out Rob Kelley as the QB that game. The Texans couldn’t move the ball and it was a sad state of affairs to be a Texans fan in Foxboro that night. Is there any reason to think it will change? The answer is no. Lay the 16 and count your money at the end of the night.