I apologize in advance for this post because it will contain data that only 2 people will care about. The results, well, you’ll find out for yourself.
Golf is looked at as an individual game. There is no help from teammates and you control your own destiny. However, each player has to play with someone else and it struck me that your playing partner could have a huge effect on your game. So I figured some playing partners must be better than others.
I decided to take the results of this year’s majors and note scores lower than 66. The idea being that to shoot a score lower than 66, the golfer enjoyed the company of his playing partner. I cared 0 about the golfer who shot the low number. The player who was with him is what I paid attention to.
Rounds lower than 66 happened a total of 47 times during the 4 majors. Tiger Woods was with a golfer 3 times who shot 66 or better topping the list. Everyone else on the list was 2 (and there a ton of guys with 1 but they didn’t make the cut). The scoring average of the golfers who were playing with this golfer is the number in parentheses. The lower the score, the better effect that golfer had on his playing partners.
T. Woods – 3 (71.33) 18 scores
P. Mickelson – 2 (71.875) 24 scores
B. Snedeker – 2 (72.7) 20 scores
L. Oosthuizen – 2 (73.58) 24 scores
M. Kaymer – 2 (71.8) 20 scores
B. Grace – 2 (71.9) 22 scores
M. Jones – 2 (72.66) 12 scores
S. Garcia – 2 (70.9) 24 scores
D Johnson – 2 (70.75) 24 scores
H. Stenson – 2 (71.375) 18 scores
B. Horschel – 2 (71.18) 22 scores
T. Fleetwood – 2 (71.71) 14 scores
Horschel and Stenson are only on the list because of Jordan Spieth’s first 2 rounds of the Masters. Louie’s final number got blown up by Tiger and Fowler firing 80 and 81 respectively during the Open’s first round. Tiger’s negative playing has no ill effects on his partners. What does it all mean?
Unfortunately after sifting through all of this data, the results are pretty inconclusive. To start, the premise is probably completely wrong that just because someone shot a round lower than 66 with that playing partner, that it had anything to do with how good of a partner they are. Assuming that actually holds any validity, the results show that you want Dustin Johnson or Sergio Garcia as your playing partner.
Another skewed aspect is that these low golfers also had 24 scores of playing partners, and were near the top of the leader board, which means that they usually play with the best golfers. With these details in mind, I pretty much wasted a ton of time coming up with results that have no significance whatsoever. You’re welcome.
It’s a very interesting angle on determining probability of success, and there might be something to it. Like you pointed out, using just the first 2 rounds of a tournament might be more telling since the better golfers are often paired with other good golfers for the weekend.
If there was a way to get this data a lot simpler, you could actually come up with some fun conclusions.
I’d agree, just use the first 2 rounds and spread it out over every tournament this year and then start going back other years. It’s difficult to get because the playing partner changes round to round and makes it hard to track. I actually hand did this one by one. Not fun.
I think it makes sense not to look at their partner by name, but by score. When a partner plays well, do these guys respond to the pressure in a positive way (I’d think on that stage most would), or do they fold?
Example:
Partner shoots +2 or worse = You shoot meh compared to your average because the bar is low, no pressure.
Partner shoots +1 – -1 = You play solid to keep pace
Partner shoots -2 or -4 = You play great due to the good golf around you
Partner shoots -5 or better = You play terribly because your partner owned you and it ruined your confidence