Pats and Broncos Breakdown 2016

Outsiders have been sending me info so I present it to you with objective intentions…to start.

Evidence 1:
Adam alerted me that Denver is 7-0 in the last 7 games when Ed Hochuli refs. Their record ATS is 4-1-2.

10/22/2000: Denver beats SD 21-7, line Den -4.5 Denver Home
9/14/2008: Denver beats SD 39-38, line Den -1. Denver Away
9/27/2009: Denver beats Oakland 23-3, line Denver -2.5 Denver Away
9/18/2011: Denver beats Cincy 24-22, line Denver -3. Denver Home
12/30/2012: Denver beats KC 38-3, line Denver -17. Denver Home
12/22/2013: Denver beats Houston 37-13, line Denver -9.5, Denver Away
12/28/2015: Denver beats Cincy 20-17, line Denver -3, Denver Home

Rob Kelley sent me this little tidbit.
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The Line is currently Pats -3.5 (-105)

First things first, I haven’t been that great during the playoffs this year. I’m 3-3 for a profit of +55 (this is negated by a $-250 bet on Alabama). I didn’t bet the Minnesota game because I didn’t wake up in time and didn’t bet the Steelers because I was sick from the Seattle game. That being said, I’m giving this game a hard look. Here is what I’m considering.

  • Brandon+Marshall+Rob+Gronkowski+LjBjAjAr0qomColin Cowherd said Peyton is throwing wounded ducks and the Pats will destroy his inability to throw the ball with any velocity.
  • Gronk looked unstoppable against the Chiefs. Bronco’s linebacker Brandon Marshall said this,¬†“I say because he pushes off,” Marshall told NBC Sports’ “Pro Football Talk Live” radio show. “I mean, he pushes off, and he gets away with it about 98 percent of the time.”
  • CJ Anderson¬†is running like the first round fantasy pick he was this year.
  • The Broncos got real lucky to beat a depleted Pittsburgh team with a late game fumble from Toussaint.
  • I can’t imagine the NFL wants Brady to win this game. Then again, him going to the Super Bowl is a network’s dream.
  • Brock Osweiler beat the Patriots 30-24 in Week 12.

hi-res-12be426b977845ede3b66bb0fcbe4004_crop_northWhere’s My Action? – The Hochuli stats mean little to me because Peyton hasn’t been the QB for all those years. I tend to agree more with Cowherd and Peyton’s problem getting the ball downfield. I’m a bit surprised he’s gotten this far with his noodle arm but it’s a team game and his D keep the Broncos in games so he only has to do so little. Let’s be honest though, that line is highly aware of what is going on. The Broncos are playing a HOME game and are dogs by 3.5. Home dogs are generally a good bet (Wins – Bengals, Vikings… Loss – Texans). I thought the Chiefs were a good team and their D stacked up but the offense was no where to be found. This is the reverse of a Broncos team who squeaked by a damaged Steelers team. I’m leaning towards the Pats -3.5 with a major inkling to buy the half point.