FANTASY BASEBALL 2016

VALUE VALUE VALUE!

 Since Sam continually reminds me that my Fantasy Baseball posts have for 2-3 years had the highest word count per post on this blog, I will explore brevity.

 Below are some high-value picks for your 2016 fantasy season. Seasons are won by filling out your roster past the first 5 or 6 rounds with productive players, often with substantial upside. Long after the easy early choices of Trout, Miggy or Kershaw have past, one must start sculpting a team around those early round picks. So enjoy these suggestions.

 *Not making the list, but worth strong consideration are Billy Burns (OF – OAK), Patrick Corbin (SP – ARZ), Denard Span (OF – SF) and Victor Martinez (DH – DET). All great value.

C : Salvador Perez (KC) (25 yo)

 Consistent backstop – and only 25 years old. 21 HR and 70 RBI in 2015. Look for him to bring the average up to .270, hit 26 HR’s and possibly get to 85 RBI in 2016. Draft him and just leave him in your lineup. Nobody wants to think about backup catcher options throughout the season. Unless you draft Posey (2nd round) or Schwarber (4th) – Perez is the best option, and frankly not much of a drop-off. 

1B : Brandon Belt (SF) (27 yo)

 An unsung 1B option in a world full of boppers and K’s. A .280 BA in 2015 is great – as well as 33 doubles. Look for him to break the 25 HR barrier in 2016 – as well as reach 80 RBI. So far this Spring, he is batting .395 with 19 RBI and 5 HR’s in 16 games. A great option for a second 1B slot, UT, or OF (which he will soon become eligible for).

2B: Josh Harrison (PIT) (28 yo)

 A jack-of-all-trades with eligibility at 2B, 3B and OF. His versatility to roster in the infield makes him quite valuable. He is a career .284 hitter who can contribute across every category but HR’s. He has the starting 2B job in Pittsburgh, so a full-season of his across the board production could see spikes in all his counting stats. 

3B: Maikel Franco (PHL) (23 yo)

 Franco batted .280 with 14 HR with 50 RBI and 22 doubles in only 80 games in 2015. This spring he is batting .292 with 8 HR, 21 RBI and 2 doubles in only 21 games. While Philadelphia is a weak team this year, it seems that Franco has the skills to put up some impressive regular season stats all by himself. ESPN projects him for 23 HR’s and 80 RBI. I could see him hitting 31 HR easily…

SS: Ketel Marte (SEA) (22 yo)

 Marte starts the season as the SS of the Mariners – and on the cusp of the leadoff spot in the order. ESPN projects him at .278 BA, 85 R, 49 RBI and 32 SB for 2016. I think Marte is the “real-deal” and will only benefit from an improved and more mature SEA offense behind him. May also be eligible for an OF spot.

OF: Gerardo Parra (COL) (28 yo)

 Parra is an across-the-board kind of player. He will get you points in various categories each week. He scores runs and hits for a high average. He steals a few bases and hits a few HR’s. However, he is now moving to COORS Field, so look for his doubles and HR totals to increase. He is a perfect 3rd OF option that will contribute across categories, and could have a breakout season in his new hitter-friendly park. Consistency = value. 

OF: Michael Conforto (NYM) (23 yo)

 Conforto has the raw skills to make a huge impact on the Mets this season. He has tremendous power, and a ton of swagger. He could be a true “breakout star” of 2016. Frankly, if given the opportunity to play everyday, I think his season numbers could be comparable to Yoenis Cespedes. Not bad for a guy going undrafted in many leagues. 

SP: Aaron Sanchez (TOR) (23 yo)

 Sanchez is looking to fit into the #2 or #3 role for the Blue Jays. A massive offense behind him should produce a ton of Wins. His potential for K’s is massive, and in his 3rd year he will look to lower his ERA a bit. Currently this spring he has a 1.35 ERA with 19 K’s in 20 IP. He is young, so expect some bumps in the road – but the Blue Jays think highly enough of him to imagine him as a front of the rotation starter. His 1.4 BB/9 this spring is very encouraging. Sanchez could easily be your reliable and breakout #3 starter in your lineup.

I want to be clear that I don’t think Sam Hinkie was a complete buffoon. He was given a horrible position to play from and decided that stock piling as many high draft picks, by losing as many games as possible, was his best chance to win. I can’t argue that I think that this is a bad strategy. I do think that doing it for 3 consecutive years is excessive and most team’s don’t do this because drafting picks can be, well, as easy as hitting the lottery.

A real team

Let’s go back to the ’96-’97 season when the Spurs went 20-62 and what is incorrectly referred to as “tanking”. The Spurs were already a good basketball team making it to the playoffs the last 7 years without once making it to the finals. David Robinson started the season out with a back injury and the team went 3-15. Bob Hill was fired and Gregg Popovich, vice president of operations, named himself head coach. A columnist wrote about this taking place, “Popovich’s ego may overflow, but don’t look for him to coach beyond this season.” David Robinson came back the day Hill was fired (coincidence stated Popovich) and the team went 3-3 before Robinson broke his foot and was out for the rest of the season. The team finished ahead of the Grizzlies and Celtics, but the luck of the draw rewarded them with the first pick which was used to select Tim Duncan and the rest is history. A further breakdown of that season.

Lakers vs Sixers 2025

I researched this because people use this example as why “tanking” is a great strategy. The Spurs already had a good team and Duncan allowed them to become a great team with a winning record in the last 19 seasons and 5 championships.

The Sixers were 35-31 in the ’11-’12 season and got past the Bulls in the 1st round of the playoffs before losing to the Celtics. The team was lead by Andre Igoudala, Jrue Holiday, and Evan Turner. Young players Lou Williams, Nik Vucevic, and Thaddeus Young rounded out the roster.

A 20-10 guy last season

The following year the Sixers used their first round draft picks on Arnett Moultrie and Moe Harkless and traded Vucevic and Iggy for Andrew Bynum in a multi-way deal. They finished the season with a 34-48 record and trending downward. Let’s not forget the team also had the infamous Kwame Brown. Kobe’s take on Kwame (funniest video ever if you’ve never seen it).  Sam Hinkie and Brett Brown were brought in.

We need to lose…to win.

The 2013 draft was a way to shake things up in the Sixers organization. Jrue Holiday and a 1st round pick was traded for Nerlens Noel in the 2013 draft, knowing he would not be healthy for the entire season. Michael Carter Williams was selected by the Sixers with the 11th pick and proceeded to win Rookie of the Year. The 2014 draft brought the Sixers Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, both of which were not available for the 2014 season. MCW was then traded for the Lakers 1st round pick in a multi way deal midway through the 2014-15 season.  The 2014-15 season ended with a 18-64 record.

The 2015 draft brought the Sixers Jahlil Okafor. Other key moves this past season were getting shooter Nick Stauskas and Ish Smith. I’m LOL’ing if you couldn’t tell. The team finished with a horrendous 10-72 (the season isn’t over but I can predict) record. This will leave the Sixers with a nice chance at the top pick in this years draft. They also have many chances at various picks that is honestly too confusing for me to understand but you can see for yourself here.

Thon Maker

As bluntly as possible, the current team has 4 NBA players in Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and presumably Joel Embiid & Dario Saric. There are young players on team who could potentially develop but I can’t see other teams saying that they would trade anything of value. They have draft picks to get players like Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Dragan Bender, or Thon Maker. Your guess is as good as mine on which will pan out.

Where does that leave the 76ers? I honestly can’t say in a good place and neither can you. No they aren’t middle of the pack anymore which is a bad place to be. They have the ability to draft young players which is not an easy task. Lebron’s and Curry’s don’t fall from the sky. The current culture is sad as the fans don’t watch the team and for the last 3 years, they’ve only learned how to lose. Sam Hinkie will tell you that these moves take time and players need to develop which is undeniably true. To be happy to have the worst 3 year record in NBA history is tough to stomach. No shit, when you win 10 games that there is only one direction to move so it’s going to get better. Honestly though, how far away is this team from winning a championship? I hope I eat my words and they make the playoffs next year. I don’t see the current roster with tons of talent though after 3 years of tanking. I will say though, at least we are talking about them. I’ll close with this poll to get an idea of a high draft pick.

[poll id=”153″]

Sam Hinkie’s Letter

You’re not a bad player, you’re just not as good as Hinkie thinks you are.

After reading the 13 page Hinkie Letter, I get a better feeling for what he was going for but I certainly don’t have much sympathy for the man. He is living in his twisted, contrarian mindset that no one else wants to emulate because it’s so far fetched that only he understands it. I feel like he thinks that having high draft picks and plenty of salary cap room is more important than the ability to predict who good players are going to be. His biggest mistakes, as he put it, were not getting Robert Covington the first chance he could and letting Joel Anthony slip through his hands. Wat? Let’s look deeper into a few of the highlights of his letter.

Can’t Argue With This Shitty Position

In May of 2013 when I spoke with several of you—and even when we first met in the summer of 2012—the situation was clear. Your crops had been eaten. A team that clawed its way to a disappointing 34 wins in 2012-13 had a few handfuls of those wins walking out the door (Dorell Wright, Nick Young, Damien Wilkins, Royal Ivey) and a player that drove a bit more who had just undergone a surgery and was expected to be out for the season (Jason Richardson). That left the club with expected wins in the low 20s before replacing anyone. The young players on rookie-scale deals numbered two: Evan Turner & Arnett Moultrie. Two future first round picks were gone as was the recent youth pipeline of Nik Vučević & Moe Harkless. Gulp

On Drafting and Int’l Players

Would I rather have TJ McConnell or Chris Paul as my PG? Let me think…

We have had the good fortune of drafting relatively early, giving us access to some especially talented players, including Jahlil Okafor (#3), Joel Embiid (#3), and Nerlens Noel (#6). Many in our office tried to set a line of when Jahlil would see his first double team in this league. Those with the under looked smart by the end of opening night, where he went for 26 points and 7 rebounds.

We also put ourselves into position to draft in the second round, where we found two 22-year-old gems to date, including Jerami Grant (#39) and Richaun Holmes (#37). Outside of the top 60 selections delivered two more players with real NBA futures in 24-year-old T.J. McConnell and 25-year-old Robert Covington.

On Young Players

This story underscores what our players, particularly our best players, are in greatest need of—time. The gap between driving wins today and driving wins tomorrow will be heavily influenced by a bunch of factors, but the biggest one is time. For players like Jahlil, Nerlens, and Jerami, getting much nearer the middle of their new NBA cohort will go a long way toward letting their talents shine through, just as it has their whole basketball lives when they were nearer the middle of those cohorts. Get down the experience curve, the faster the better. They are 20, 21, and 22 years old.

On Dario Saric

As of now, we hold three players on this list, highlighted by the 21-year-old Dario Šarić. Dario is a 6-10 forward with a guard’s skills and a big’s toughness. Twice voted as FIBA European Young Player of the Year, we were in position to draft him in part because he required something you’ve had in ample supply: one part courage, two parts patience. He will look great in Sixers blue.

The venerable San Antonio Spurs don’t have three rights-held players playing internationally like we now do, they have thirteen. Most of their names are hard for many fans to pronounce. Ginobili used to be, too.

On the Sixers Draft Picks

#1 picks are no brainers!

In the upcoming May draft lottery, we have what will likely be the best ever odds to get the #1 overall pick (nearly 30%), a roughly 50/50 chance at a top-2 pick (the highest ever), and a roughly 50/50 chance at two top-5 picks, which would be the best lottery night haul ever. That same bounce of a ping pong ball (almost a flip of a coin) will determine if we have three first round picks this year (unusual) or four (unprecedented). That’s this year. Or this quarter, if you will. If you were to estimate the value of those firsts and the ones to follow, from this point forward we have essentially two NBA teams’ worth of first round pick value plus the third most second round picks in the league.

On Salary Cap

Our salary cap position going forward is easily the NBA’s best. The most room, the most flexibility, providing the widest available set of options in free agency or trade of any club.

My Thoughts on the 76ers

• 

  This is what 3 years of Hinkie has produced

  Nerlens, Okafor, and Joel Embiid (we hope) all get marks for being decent basketball players. I actually like Covington too.

• Ish Smith is ranked 112 out of 116 players in fg% – 40.6%
• Nik Stauskas, brought in for his shooting, is shooting 33.6% from 3pt land, good for 114th out of 147 players. Kristaps Porzingas is directly behind him.
• Elton Brand is 37 years old but I’m sure his locker room aura is creating a wealth of positive energy around the team.
• The 32 year old Carl Landry was receiving chants of MVP at the latest Sixers game. Oh boy.

Sam,

You had 3 years to build a team. At the end of the that time you have young players and a bunch of misfits with promises of high draft picks. Agreed, it’s a strategy that no one else is utilizing in the NBA. You most certainly are a contrarian. At this point, there are no signs that what you put into motion after 3 years will work. Your eye for talent is questionable at best when you think TJ McConnel is suitable as an NBA point guard. Good day sir.