I know my readers care little about my football experience but it’s my blog and you’ll have to suffer through my suffering.
After leaving Saturday night with a $150 dollar win on Iowa +4, I had high expectations for football Sunday. I had done my research and felt primed and ready to go for a smorgasbord of fantasy, Draftkings, and actual bets. After leaving the 4pm games, I considered myself pretty happy with where I sat. Come this morning, I’m singing a different tune.
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Click to enhance. Enhance. Enhance.
Draftkings is the first amazing run of “what the fuck”. I’m currently cashing for $60 (which would break me even) with the Redskins D hopefully making me a little more without being bounced from the other cash. I’m “only” putting up 180, 193, and 193+. The Steelers onslaught changed my rank quickly as I had virtually no exposure. It should be noted my best team left 500 dollars on the sideline and had A-Pete go for a pittance. My expectations were high, the results were low.
- The Steelers-Colts game was a huge fuck you to me all around. Evan overtook me with Frank Gore for our bye game and the Pool Boys overtook me for regular season champ with Big Ben. Unless RunDMC gets hurt, I’ll lose both games. This puts me in the playoff hunt in 3 leagues having to play 2 times next week.
- My bets were atrocious. The Browns cost me $100 along with a $50 tease (which lost 2 or 5). The Colts cost me $75 and I have the sinking feeling that I’m a complete moron, which I may be. Tough day all around.
I’ve been through this before so I know you don’t let it spiral out of control. The best thing to do is take a step back, re-group, and then start playing again when you have a better mindset. All in all, I’m still doing fine with my betting and DK is sort of kicking my ass but I’m at least enjoying it.
Try to save some $ for fantasy baseball season…
The issue with daily stuff vs. season-long is kind of what John Oliver alluded to: specialization.
Daily leagues require movements/selections based on circumstance and situation – or “conditions”. Interpreting these dynamic “conditions” and making successful selections is much more difficult than betting on longer-term trends (or a season-long league). Obviously, Miggy is going to get or approach 30hrs and 100rbi – so your bet is safer because it’s a longer curve.
The fallacy of the daily leagues is their selling point that it’s “easier” and because of the daily nature, you have a better chance. You have MORE chances to play, but probably LESS chance to win – as obtaining the information required is more taxing.
If you draft Adrian Peterson for a season, he will have a bad game or two. But you are getting the productivity and consistency of having him – which is a safer bet for your team than not drafting him on the value of the two underwhelming games.
The daily leagues are like betting “who will have a good game/who will have a bad game”. Who will have a “good season” is much much easier to predict and forecast.