ProFootball Focus Intelligence – Week 4

Back again for a second week’s recap of the “pro’s” at Pro Football Focus where we hold the analyst’s responsible for their picks. Read about week 3 results.

Top Contrarian Plays For Week 4 – Scott Barrett

hqdefaultBrock Osweiler – QB16, 15.56 pts
Carson Palmer – QB22, 11.52 pts
Charles Sims – RB57, 2.5 pts
LeSean McCoy – RB8, 19.8 pts
Julio Jones – WR1, 42 pts
Kevin White – WR46, 8.4 pts
Mercedes Lewis – TE36, 1.7 pts
Cameron Brate – TE12, 9.2 pts

The Julio Jones recommendation immediately earns Mr. Barrett high praise. He was owned in 6% of large leagues and dropped a 50 spot on em. Osweiler and Palmer were duds at QB. Sims was a bomb at RB but LeSean earned a passing grade. The rest were all mediocre picks with Mercedes not even on the radar in most people’s minds.

Last Week’s Grade – B+
This Weeks’ Grade – B

 

Bargains of the Week – Brandon Marianne Lee

Brandon Marianne LeeKirk Cousins – QB13, 17.32 pts
Dak Prescott – QB9, 18.10 pts
Trevor Siemian – QB32, 6.72 pts
Mark Ingram – RB9, 19.5 pts
Jordan Howard – RB14, 14.7 pts
Giovani Bernard – RB48, 5.7 pts
Dwayne Washington – RB63, 1.9 pts
Travis Benjamin – WR68, 4.8 pts
Emmanuel Sanders – WR12 18.4 pts
Michael Crabtree – WR2, 30.3 pts
Jamison Crowder – WR81, 3.1 pts
Cole Beasley – WR42, 8.8 pts
Zach Miller – TE10, 10.6 pts
Hunter Henry – TE4, 14.1 pts
Jesse James – TE14, 8.5 pts

She’s all over the place with the amount of “bargains” so it’s tough to grade when you pick 15 players. 5 of them finished in the top 10 in their position which is obviously what you are looking for in this type of list. 4 were within the top 20 which means over 50% of the picks were good. 6 were awful recommendations.

Last Week’s Grade – D+
This Week’s Grade – C+

 

Fades of the Week by Tyler Loechner

Tyler Loechner

Tyler Loechner

Carson Palmer – QB22, 11.52 pts
Matt Forte – RB41, 5.3 pts
Latavius Murray – RB47, 3.4 pts
Alshon Jeffrey – WR61, 6.1 pts
Brandon Marshall – WR14, 16.9 pts
Delanie Walker – TE23, 4.4 pts

What we’ll learn about Tyler is he’s much better at picking players who will do bad, than who do good. Great calls on Palmer, Forte, Murray, Jeffrey, and Delanie. A shade off on B Marsh but this is quality advice.

Last Week’s Grade – B-
This Week’s Grade – A-

 

Locks of the Week by Mike Tagliere

gl7e4a-mKirk Cousins – QB13, 17.32 pts
Matthew Stafford – QB29, 8.22 pts
Melvin Gordon – RB4, 20.9 pts
Amari Cooper – WR53, 7.3 pts
Dennis Pitta – TE26, 3.2 pts

Melvin Gordon was the only “lock” (with Cousins being decent) and half the other analysts had him as well. The other “locks” were poor suggestions. I will not be using his advice until his picks sharpen up.

This Weeks Grade – D

(I gave him a C- last week on “Top Streaming Options)

Fanduel Lineup Advice: The Best Plays of Week 4 – Patrick Thorman

hqdefault-1Ben Roethlisberger – QB2, 33.9pts
Carson Palmer – QB22, 11.52pts
Lamar Miller – RB20, 12.3pts
LeGarrette Blount – RB36, 7.3pts
Mark Ingram – RB9, 19.5 pts
Duke Johnson – RB31, 8.6pts
Alshon Jeffrey – WR61, 6.1pts
Doug Baldwin – WR51, 7.4pts
DeSean Jackson – WR106, 1pt
Michael Crabtree – WR2, 30.3pts
Travis Kelce – TE8, 10.8pts
Hunter Henry – TE4, 14.1 pts

Lots of poor advice here. If you aren’t hitting guys in the top 15, you aren’t going to win DFS. Big Ben, Mark Ingram, Crabtree, and Hunter Henry were the nice choices. If you played anyone else, there’s a good chance you weren’t going to win your league. Pat Thorman is not on solid footing with his selections in my book.

Last Weeks Grade – C
This Week’s Grade – C-

 

Week 4 Sleeper Candidates – Tyler Loechner

Steve Smith – WR6, 21.1pts
Amari Cooper – WR53, 7.3pts
Demaryius Thomas – WR11, 18.8pts
Emmanuel Sanders – WR12, 18.4 pts
DeMarco Murray – RB1, 24.9 pts
Jamaal Charles or Spencer Ware – RB33, 8.1pts
Dwayne Washington – RB63, 1.9pts
Greg Olsen – TE2, 18.6pts
Jason Witten – TE15, 8.2pts
C.J Uzomah – TE20, 6.5 pts

Notice that his sleepers are better than his actual picks. Steve Smith was primo. Both Bronco’s WR’s performed. Demarco was the #1 RB and Olsen the #2 TE. Lots of misses on Cooper this week. Dwayne Washington was a bust all over. Witten an Uzomah really weren’t going to be used any way you look at it.

This Week’s Grade – A

 

Week 4 Start Sit Advice – Dan Schneier

Dan SchneierBest Matchups
Philip Rivers – QB9, 18.84 pts
Ezekiel Elliot – RB2, 22.2 pts
DeAndre Hopkins – WR108, .9pts

Start Them
Brian Hoyer – QB7, 19.78 pts
Jordan Howard – RB14, 14.7 pts
Philip Dorsett – WR19, 13.2 pts

Sit Them
Jameis Winston – QB24, 11.06 pts
Latavius Murray – RB47, 3.4 pts
Tavon Austin – WR71, 1.8 pts

Missing on DeAndre Hopkins likely cost you any DFS shot but he hit 8 of his other 9 recommendations which is worth something. 2 weeks in a row will keep him on my radar.

Last Week’s Grade – B
This Week’s Grade – B+

 

Evan Silva Quotes

Evan SilvaMiller’s relatively slow start makes him an attractive DFS tournament play because it will lower the ownership of a big-play runner locked into monster usage. (RB20)

Big Ben makes for an excellent DFS tournament play. (QB2)

Crabtree leads Oakland in catches (19) and is cash-game viable in DFS this week (WR2)

Julio, of course, should still be fired up confidently. (WR1)

In DFS tournaments, Jackson will be the lowest-owned Redskins pass catcher this week and arguably offers the highest ceiling as Browns top corner Joe Haden continues to battle a groin injury (WR106)

 

DFS Lineup Advice

Week 4 Optimal Fanduel Lineup – Brandon Marianne Lee
Kirk Cousins – QB13, 17.32 pts
Melvin Gordon – RB4, 20.9 pts
Jordan Howard – RB14, 14.7 pts
Antonio Brown – WR8, 20.4 pts
Julio Jones – WR1, 42 pts
Jamison Crowder – WR81, 3.1 pts
Hunter Henry – TE4, 14.1 pts
Chris Boswell – K21, 5 pts
Panthers – D14, 7pts

Total 144.52 (B+ Grade)

Week 4 Optimal Draftkings Lineup – Tyler Loechner
Kirk Cousins – QB13, 17.32 pts
Le’Veon Bell – RB6, 20.3 pts
Melvin Gordon – RB4, 20.9 pts
DeAndre Hopkins – WR108, .9pts
Marvin Jones – WR37 9.9pts
Jamison Crowder – WR81, 3.1 pts
Hunter Henry – TE4, 14.1 pts
Adam Humphries – WR107, .9pts
Broncos – D3, 15pts

Total – 102.42 (D- Grade)

 

Final Thoughts

I had a great week in DK with the combination of advice from the analysts and Evan Silva. I know this will sound arrogant but I tended to go with my gut a little bit more this week instead of blindly following the recommendations. We’ll go again next week with a little better bankroll.

By |2016-10-28T15:30:24-04:00October 4th, 2016|Fantasy|0 Comments

A Chance For a DK Golf Cash

I was sitting in 682nd place out of 89k about 30 minutes ago before Rafa Cabrera Bello made double bogey on 1. I know that’s gibberish to most people but today will (hopefully) conclude the PGA Championship. As like any golf event, the last day is always the best. Let’s hope the weather holds up.

dk

By |2016-10-29T12:07:25-04:00July 31st, 2016|Fantasy|0 Comments

NFL O/U Predictions Update

2015 Predictions

Currently my predictions will work out with 16 right, 8 wrong, and 8 undetermined.

Seattle, Indianapolis, and the Eagles were disappointing picks.  Way off on Miami, Carolina, and the Giants.  Made some nice calls with the Jets, Vikings, and Cardinals.

Sorry this post sucks but I have no Monday motivation.

By |2016-10-28T15:45:40-04:00December 28th, 2015|Fantasy|0 Comments

Fantasy Football Drafts Begin

Fantasy-FootballI’m not sure it’s a wise move to post my thoughts in drafts because I know people who are in my leagues read this and there is nothing worse when a player is scooped out from under you.  Even still, fantasy football is 25% draft, 75% management.

It’s smart to look at the previous year and see how you did and what were smart moves and mistakes on draft day to learn for this year.

Wild_turkey_eastern_usWild Turkeys – 1st Place – With the first pick I took A-Pete who missed the entire season.  It shows that you can still win without your first round pick which is why I have no qualms taking Leveon Bell with #1 this year.  My second round pick was Arian Foster who also got hurt mid season but was a beast during the playoff run.  Gronk in the 3rd round was the steal of the century playing all games.  Aside from those picks I had no one else who was a great contributor.  Matt Ryan and Vincent Jackson were mediocre and the rest were just plug in’s.  Now obviously I made tremendous picks up with ODB, Jeremy Hill (Bud spent a third of his waiver money only to drop him which I think will be a lesson learned that if you spend your money, believe in the pick up), Kenny Stills, and Charles Johnson.  This team won their last 7 games though off of ODB, Hill, and Gronk riding high through the playoff run.

I made the finals in another league (drafting Eddie Lacy first, Montee Ball second, Gronk 3rd),  the playoffs in a league (Dez and Demarius went 1-2 for me – Gronk, who was drafted in the 3rd round by Adam won the league), and missed the playoffs in the 3rd (drafting Peterson and Foster again).  Key note here, Gronk was on the championship team in 3 out of 4 leagues I played in.

2015 Draft

Here is a list of where players are being drafted.

adp

If I get the first pick, I’m a toss up between LeVeon Bell and Adrian Peterson.  I want nothing to do with Lacy, Lynch, Anderson, or Forte.  I’d take Jamaal or J. Hill if they come to me.  I’m not taking DeMarco, LeSean, Forsett, or Miller with any of my picks.  These aren’t guys I want on my team.  I’ll take my chances with guys like Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, D Martin, and Jonathan Stewart.

oakland-raiders-wide-receiver-amari-cooperThis takes us to WR’s.  I like the top 7 guys.  I think ODB is going slightly too high and Megatron slightly too low.  I’d prefer Megatron over Dez, Julio, and Demaryius.  I’m 100% looking to draft him in the 2nd round if he drops to me.  AJ Green, TY, Jeffery, and Brandin Cooks are good players but I’m looking elsewhere.  Guys like Matthews, Hopkins, Adams, and Amari Cooper seem more reasonably priced.

TE’s are Gronk.  I’m drafting Gronk in the 2nd round.  Bottom line.  No one is more valuable.  If someone wants to draft him with the 11th pick like I would, then I’ll find another guy like Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett, or Tyler Eifert in the later rounds.  If I can’t get Gronk, I don’t mind waivering it up for a TE week after week.

NFL: Divisional Round-San Diego Chargers at Denver BroncosQB’s are my least important draft pick because the difference between the best and the worst isn’t that great.  I read some article that pointed out a guy using waiver wire pick ups week after week actually out scored Matt Ryan over the course of a season.  Sure I like Luck and Rodgers but I don’t think they add that much value.  Give me Ryan Fitzpatrick against a shitty defense any day of the week and I’ll roll the dice instead of drafting Peyton in the 3rd round.

 

Disclaimer

Just because I write it doesn’t mean I follow it to a t.  I’m not trying to throw people off because if you come to read my blog, I want to provide good content.  I’m not a fantasy star by any means but I hawk the waiver wire closer than you and that’s why I’m competitive.  There’s  a reason why I make the most moves year after year.  The draft is the draft but the season is the real deal.

By |2016-11-08T09:59:03-05:00August 28th, 2015|Fantasy|2 Comments

A Day’s Work

jasonday

Credit the Shee for another nice golf pick. Obviously I would have liked to put more than 15 bucks on Jason Day but a c-note is nothing to sneeze at.

The account has juiced up to almost a K since an 11-3 NFL playoff run starting from $100. This is mostly profit as my fantasy winnings ($+400) canceled by FanDuel losses (~$600).

Zombie-Head-Bowling-Balls-1I also rolled a few decent bowling games this weekend – 175, 170, 190 (leaving out the first 139). I’m still enjoying it and contemplating buying a ball.

By |2016-10-29T12:38:17-04:00February 9th, 2015|Fantasy|1 Comment

Championship Check In

Two teams rolling today.  I expect to win with team 1 and lose with team 2.  Nothing to do but sit back and enjoy the games.

The Wild Turkeys – Big pickups with J Hill (thanks Bud) and Odell Beckham.  Arian Foster made up for the 1st round pick of Adrian Peterson.  Team has been huge late season rattling off 6 straight wins.

AP APTOPIX COWBOYS GIANTS FOOTBALL S FBN USA NJMatt Ryan
Arian Foster
Jeremy Hill
Vincent Jackson
Odell Beckham
Gronk
Fred Jackson
Justin Tucker
The Rams

 

Lacey’s Out – Not as formidable a squad as the team above.  Saved with rookie receiver picks in the draft who have come through.  Montee Ball was a bust 2nd round pick and I played Jay Cutler over Stafford most of the season.  The team has won 7 straight but it’s been more matchup dependent instead of blowing teams out of the water.  Brandon Oliver and Denard Robinson were fill ins for my 2 spot most of the  year and this week I get the luxury of playing Asiata.  I could choose between Colston, M Wallace, and Charles Johnson.  I’m projected to lose so I’m going with the eyes closed, boom or bust, Charles Johnson.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsMatthew Stafford
Eddie Lacy
Matt Asiata
Mike Evans
Kelvin Benjamin
Gronk
Charles Johnson
Connor Barth
The Vikings

 

By |2016-10-29T12:41:53-04:00December 21st, 2014|Fantasy|1 Comment

Who Wants to Smoke a Dubuisson?

dubbison

My man is sitting 5 back from that little choke artist Rory McIlroy. No Frenchman has won the “British Open” in what I think I read ever. This 100-1 longshot is in about as good as shape as I could ask for. Oh yeah, and yesterday I chipped in from 100 for my first eagle ever aside from that hole in one I got. Things are looking up and Sunday should have some action lined up.

By |2016-10-29T13:01:31-04:00July 19th, 2014|Fantasy|0 Comments

Top Posts

Categories