We do some business overseas and I have to pay in Euros about 3 times a month. This has me watching the USD / EUR exchange rate with a decent amount of frequency. I asked my broker what his outlook was on the dollar. He responded with this:
“The dollar did get a bounce when the President announced he wanted to strike Syria but now that this Russian disarmament plan seems to be gathering some momentum, the dollar has started to slip back. The next few weeks will be crucial for where the dollar goes for the rest of the year. There will be much debate in Congress about the budget and debt ceiling again which will likely weaken the dollar’s position. Tough to know where this is headed but I’d encourage you to pay sooner rather than later. Wish I could be more definitive with the outlook but given all the variables it is nearly impossible to know where this is heading.”
The reason I title this post the way I did is because I could easily take his word for gospel and hold him to it. He’s saying the dollar will weaken over time and it’s best to pay now before it goes up. If the reverse happens, I can act like a total a-hole and bitch and moan about how he gave me bad advice. This is why so many companies are told to never give out any type of persuasive guidance. It only gets them in trouble. I understand this and won’t ever hold a person responsible for bad information because I still have the chance to make the decision to follow it.
There are plenty of people in this world who take people at their word and then get upset when it doesn’t happen that way. A key to life is being able to adapt and understand when a circumstance doesn’t have one exact right answer. That nobody has a crystal ball and can predict the future. Even sure things sometimes aren’t sure. When the bartender at Fireside said the song “Take My Breath Away” by Berlin was in Dirty Dancing, she said she knew the answer. The answer was Top Gun. When I say that Cam Newton is a better fantasy player than Peyton Manning and then Manning goes off for 7 TD’s, I look like an idiot. Knowing when recommended information is right and wrong is usually not an exact science and smart people are able to know when to trust what they hear and when to go against the grain. Getting upset at someone for giving you wrong information makes you a dick because you were dumb enough to follow it.