Klosterman Question from IV

You are placed in the unenviable position of having to compete for the right to stay alive. You will be matched against a person of your own gender in a series of five events – an 800 meter run, a game of Scrabble, a three round boxing match, a debate over the legalization of late term abortion (scored and officiated by reputable collegiate judge), and the math portion of the SAT.

In order to survive, you must win at least three of these events (your opponent will be playing for his or her life as well). However, you (kind of) get to pick you opponent: you can either (a) compete against a person selected at random, or (b) you can compete against someone who is exactly like you. If selected at random, the individual could be of any age or skill level – he/she might be an infant with Down syndrome, but he/she might also be an Academic All-American linebacker from Notre Dame. IF you pick “the average human,” he/she will be precisely your age and will have an identical level of eduction, and the person will be a perfect cross-section of your particular demographic – he/she will be of average height and of average weight, with a standard IQ and the most normative life experience imaginable.

So whom do you select? Or – perhaps more accurately – do you feel that you are better than an average version of yourself?

It’s very tempting to pick at random. Personally, I have a decent mix in these particular events. In the 800, I’d expect to beat almost all randoms. I’d probably lose in Scrabble but that might be giving a lot of credit to the tards in our society. I’d think I’d do pretty well in a fight against a random person because I have endurance and a better build than most. I’d basically concede the debate even if it’s against a child. My math is pretty good and better than most but certainly beatable. When I weigh this all together I feel like I have an edge against a random but if I get match up against a hybrid of Dan O’Brien and Professor Emmett Brown, I’m toast. Is that worth the risk of going against an average human?

Yes, I’d obviously pick the average human. Not many average 6 ft 170 pound people are beating me in a half mile race. The scrabble would be a toss up because I don’t play. I have to think I’m winning most fights against Joe Blow. The debate could go either way as I’m not completely inept but my feelings on abortion don’t come to mind often. So that leaves me with 2 wins, 2 either ways and my Math SAT was 640 or so back in the day. I’m sure I’d probably get a 500 now which would leave me teetering. Two sure things and 3 toss ups give me a 3 shots at a 50/50. The chance of me losing 3 coin flips in a row is (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)= 1/8 or 12.25%. I think that’s right (if it’s wrong my math would probably get lower) so I should have a 87.75 success rate against an average bro. The chance of getting a random superstar is probably pretty slim too but betting my life against that just doesn’t seem smart. I’m going random. What about you?